Markets are in sharp reversal after yesterdays risk-on rally. We can see some USD recovery this morning but for now that's only on the intra-day basis, larger picture is still down for the buck, so technically nothing changes. The only difference is maybe a shift between strong commodity currencies to a temporary bearish picture. But important part here is »temporary«. Before we go to some wave counts, lets firstly take a look on correlations.

On the chart below we can see a comparison between S&P, EURUSD and AUDUSD. We can see that AUDUSD is the weakest and EURUSD the strongest so based on this relationship its better to put money into the EUR rather than in to AUD if of course you assume that S&P will stay in bullish mode.

S&P vs EURUSD vs AUDUSD

EURUSD 4h – Elliott Wave Analysis

EURUSD broke to a new high yesterday which has been technical expected after very slow and sideways price action above 1.3650 which was just another correction within larger uptrend. Based on a strong upward reaction it was probably wave (ii) and now wave (iii) underway above 1.3800 and much higher in days ahead as we suspect that pair is in the middle of a larger impulsive rally.

Break and daily close back beneath 1.37 will be a warning sign for a change in trend; from bullish to temporary bearish mode

EURUSD 4h Elliott Wave Analysis

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Ew-forecast.com is providing advanced technical analysis for the financial markets (Forex, Gold, Oil & S&P) with method called Elliott Wave Principle. We help traders who are interested in Elliott Wave theory to understand it correctly. We are doing our best to explain our view and bias as simple as possible with educational goal, because knowledge itself is power.

Gregor is based in Slovenia and has been in Forex market since 2003. His approach to the markets is mainly technical. He uses a lot of different methods when analyzing the markets; from candlestick patterns, MA, technical indicators etc. His specialty however is Elliott Wave Theory which could be very helpful to traders.
He was working for Capital Forex Group and TheLFB.com. His featured articles have been published in: Thestreet.com, Action forex, Forex TV, Istockanalyst, ForexFactory, Fxtraders.eu. He mostly focuses on currencies, gold, oil, and some major US indices.

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Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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