Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Gold and Silver Ratio Signals Much Higher Silver Prices

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Aug 28, 2013 - 10:26 AM GMT

By: Hubert_Moolman

Commodities

It is natural to compare the current precious metals' bull market with that of the 70s, since there are many similarities between the two. Below is a comparison which illustrates some of the similarities between the two bull markets:


Dow/Gold Ratio

All charts are generated at macrotrends.net

The top chart is gold (inflation-adjusted) from 1966 to1981, and the bottom is gold (inflation adjusted) from 1999 to 2013. It is evident that both gold bull markets, started sometime after a major peak in the Dow/Gold ratio. They both had an important peak about nine years after the Dow/Gold ratio peak, which was followed by a significant correction.

After the peak and correction, the price eventually went higher to a far greater peak, which in the case of the 70s chart was the end of the bull market. Knowingly, or unknowingly, these similarities are probably the reasons why many think that the gold and silver bull markets ended in 2011, with the peaks in that year.

Does it mean that the bull market is indeed over, since gold and silver did not rally higher than the 2011 peaks, in 2012 and up to now in 2013? Especially since the above charts seem to suggest so.

The Gold/Silver ratio appears to provide some answers to this question. Below, is a 100-year Gold/Silver ratio chart:

Gold/Silver Ratio Chart

On the chart, I have indicated the period of the 70s and latest bull market, between red and green lines. Notice how similar the patterns (marked a to e) are during these two periods, again illustrating how reasonable it is to compare the two bull markets. However, this chart also shows why those who believe that the bull market is over are probably very wrong.

Although, the patterns are similar, they do not exist in a similar context in relation to the long-term movements of the Gold/Silver ratio chart. The 70s pattern formed more towards the bottom of the 100-year range of this ratio, whereas the recent pattern formed more towards the top.

More importantly, the 70s pattern formed at or just after a major bottom (1968) in the ratio, whereas the recent pattern formed just after a major top. This means the 70s pattern was formed during an uptrend in the ratio, and it was, therefore, more likely that the ratio would continue higher over the years following the pattern. The recent pattern is formed during a downtrend in the ratio and; therefore, there are likely greater forces at work putting downward pressure on the ratio.

This compares favourably to the positive fundamentals of the silver (and gold) market, since there is nothing to suggest that paper (money) is now safe, and much less riskier than gold and silver. The massive debts that lurk behind the fiat currencies (including the US dollar) are representative of these great forces that will keep more people preferring gold over these debt-ridden currencies.

Point e of the 70's pattern is where gold and silver made significant all-time nominal highs, much higher than any previous highs. On the recent pattern only gold made an all-time nominal high, higher (but not much higher) than any previous highs. Silver only equalled its 1980 all-time nominal high. This is a major non-confirmation which signals that although the two patterns played out in a similar manner, it does not mean that point e in the recent one is the end of the gold and silver bull market just like in 1980.

However, why did we not get the final blow-off rally for silver, to a price much higher than any precious nominal high? Again, it can be best explained by looking at the Gold Silver ratio. Below, is the same 100-year Gold/Silver ratio chart:

Gold/Silver Ratio Chart 2

However, here I show a more relevant comparison to the 70s bull market (pattern). On the chart, I have marked the 70s bull market with points 1 to 5. Instead of comparing it to the latest bull market, starting in 1999, I compare it to the period starting in 1980, when silver peaked in January of that year to now (which I have market 1 to 4, with point 5 still to come). If point 5 occurs lower than 15 (as illustrated), we will have a very accurate fractal (pattern), similar to the one of the 70s (but bigger).

This is a more relevant comparison since both patterns starts from a major peak in silver, 1968 and 1980, respectively. Both patterns started at the bottom of the 100-year range of this ratio, in fact, at a major bottom (1968 & 1980).

The current pattern has not completed yet, and it would suggest that it will only complete at a point much lower than a ratio of 15. Such a completion of the pattern is consistent with the bullish fundamentals of silver (and gold) in relation to paper money - understanding that a lower ratio will likely mean higher gold and silver prices.. Furthermore, it is consistent with the scenario that we are in a downtrend in the ratio; therefore, being, more likely to go lower over the next couple of years. A recent comparison of the relationship between the silver and Dow bull markets tell the same story.

For more silver and gold analysis and guidance, see my Long-term Silver Fractal Report   or subscribe to my Premium Service.

Warm regards and God bless,

Hubert
http://hubertmoolman.wordpress.com/

You can email any comments to hubert@hgmandassociates.co.za

© 2013 Copyright Hubert Moolman - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in