Stock Market Pop and Drop Today
Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013 May 30, 2013 - 06:39 PM GMT
This morning I had a chance to review the Elliott Wave structure of the SPX and found an error which allows for a higher correction to be finished this morning. With the Pre-market positive, it appears that the SPX will challenge the lower trendline of the Broadening Wedge one final time.
Sub-minute Wave (i) is almost exactly 8 points, so what comes to mind is the equality relationship between Waves (i) and (v). That would put the target of this Wave at 1656.00 and challenging the trendline yet again. This may happen by 10:00 am (Eastern) with a sell-off to follow.
A Wave [iii] relationship of 2 times the length of Wave [i] (similar to the Wave Relationship in Minor Wave 1) would put the target at 1588.00, beneath the 50-day moving average at 1596.00. This is an ideal setup for a Flash Crash that may last 4.3 to 6 days, putting the probable low between next Monday or Wednesday.
Here’s something that may make the rally short-lived. The US Department of Labor reports, “In the week ending May 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 354,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 344,000. The 4-week moving average was 347,250, an increase of 6,750 from the previous week's revised average of 340,500.”
In addition, “The U.S. economy expanded at a 2.4 percent annual rate during the period, down a tenth of a point from an initial estimate, according to revised figures from the Commerce Department released on Thursday. Analysts had forecast a 2.5 percent gain.
The bounce to retest the Broadening Wedge is fading. It may not appear in the Cash Market.
This morning’s headline in CNN/Money says, “A big drop in Japan stocks wasn't spilling over to Wall Street early Thursday.”
I suggest that these guys are just whistling past the graveyard.
The Nikkei closed this morning at 13589.00, beneath all its possible support levels. The Nikkei is already seeing a commodity-style drop of 5% overnight after a 12.5% decline in 4 days. It also has a small Broadening Wedge with an average target of 11840.00. Notice the Master Cycle low at 11805.78. A bounce there may allow a Head & Shoulders formation with a probable target of 7740.00.
Good luck and happy trading!
Regards,
Tony
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Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only. There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.
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