Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Silver Price Lows: A Discernible Pattern

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 May 14, 2013 - 02:34 AM GMT

By: DeviantInvestor

Commodities

Unfortunately, there is not, that I can see, a simple pattern that predicts the next high or low in the price of silver. Markets seldom make it that easy. However, there are patterns that provide valuable information to help illuminate the “big picture” perspective of where the current price of silver lies in the up-down-up-down cycle of prices.


Process

  • Examine monthly prices since 1972 – over 40 years. Use monthly prices to see only the “big picture” with important lows and highs.
  • List the dates for important lows, and determine the number of months between adjacent lows.
  • Look for simple patterns.
  • Group One Lows: 8/77, 6/82, 5/86, 2/91, 3/95, 8/98, 5/04, 10/08, 4/13. They are separated by the following number of months: 58, 47, 57, 49, 41, 69, 53, 54. (average 53.5)
  • Group Two Lows: 2/93, 7/97, 11/01, and they are separated by 53 and 52 months.

Significant lows are separated by approximately 4.5 years, with rather wide variations. I doubt you can trade this; but, if you are investing for the long term, this indicates that buying aggressively approximately every four to five years should work out fairly well. April 2013 looks like it is at or near a multi-year low.

Big Picture Summary

  • Governments spend in excess of their revenues and create ever-increasing debts.
  • Central banks create the digital currency to keep the debt machines running, thereby increasing the money supply and inevitably increasing prices.
  • Do you remember gasoline at $0.15 along with other goods and services at similarly “unbelievable” prices? Those days disappeared with the huge increase in the number of dollars in circulation, particularly after Nixon severed the link between gold and the dollar in August 1971.
  • Silver prices fall until there are few sellers left, rise until there are few buyers remaining, and repeat the cycle.
  • Each low to high to low cycle takes roughly 4.5 years. At price peaks, the silver bulls are euphoric, while they are depressed and worried at the lows.
  • Ask yourself, “Does now feel like a low or a high in the silver price?”
  • About 4.5 years ago there was an important low in the silver price – October 2008.
  • About 4.5 years before that, there was another important low in the silver price – May 2004.
  • Highs follow lows.

For additional information, read Silver – Keep it Simple! and Silver – A Bipolar Roller Coaster.

GE Christenson
aka Deviant Investor

If you would like to be updated on new blog posts, please subscribe to my RSS Feed or e-mail

© 2013 Copyright Deviant Investor - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in