Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Barrons Turns Bullish, TIme to Cash in Your Stock Market Chips?

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013 Apr 26, 2013 - 11:14 AM GMT

By: Bill_Bonner

Stock-Markets

We don't like the looks of it...

Advisors are too bullish. Investors are too complacent. The financial authorities are too confident.

All up and down Wall Street... in central banks and in Washington... the stuff that goeth before the fall is thick, sticky and stinky.


The economy is recovering, they say. The Fed has the situation in hand, they add. Don't worry... we know what we're doing, they assure us.

Barron's magazine says the Dow is going to 16,000, illustrated with a picture of a bull on a pogo stick.


Prime Minister Abe says he'll revive the Japanese economy by printing yen to buy Japanese bonds. And speculators take each hint from the Fed as though it were a whisper from God Himself.

And all around them, the real economy struggles to stay even. Here's David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff with 12 signs that the economy is weaker than we think:

  • Household employment (-206,000 in March, the steepest decline in well over a year).
  • Real retail sales (-0.3% in March, down for the second time in three months).
  • Manufacturing production (-0.1% and also down in two of the past three months).
  • Core capex orders (-3.2% in February and, again, down in two of the past three months).
  • Single-family housing starts (-4.8% in March and negative for two of the past three months, as well).
  • New home sales (-4.6% in February).
  • Philly Fed for April down to 1.3 from 2 .
  • NY Fed Empire manufacturing index down to 3.05 from 9.24.
  • NAHB Housing Market I ndex down to a six-month low of 42 in April from 44.
  • Conference Board C onsumer C onfidence I ndex down to 59.7 in March from 68.
  • University of Michigan consumer sentiment down to 72.3 for April from 78.6, the lowest in over a year.
  • Conference Board leading indicators down 0.1% in March, first decline in seven months.

Markets Make Opinions

Facts, figures, statistics...

Do you believe them, dear reader? We don't. We're just giving the dreamers a little taste of their own medicine.

"Markets make the opinions," say the old timers. When prices are up, people share the opinion that they are going up. When prices go down, opinions change with falling prices.

And when prices rise, the opinion mongers look for reasons to explain why they have become so bullish. They find indexes, statistics, numbers – all the "facts" confirm their opinion. When prices fall, their opinions grow dark and they need to find new facts that they can use to justify a counter view.

Get a feeling. Form an opinion. Find a fact and pretend that you are a rational, reasonable investor. That's the name of the game.

But are we any different?

Not at all. We're just crankier. More cynical. And less impressed by authority in all its forms. Besides, we've been living in Argentina.

If a Nobel Prize-winning economist tells us that the economy is improving, what do we really know? We know he can talk!

If the president tells us that he and his friends are making the world a better place, what do we do? We laugh!

If a leading financial magazine tells us that the "Big Money" firmly believes the Dow is headed higher, what do we do?

We seriously consider selling!

From bearish fund manager John Hussman: "Rule o' Thumb: When the cover of a major financial magazine features a cartoon of a bull leaping through the air on a pogo stick, it's probably about time to cash in the chips."

Bill Bonner
Bill Bonner is a New York Times bestselling author and founder of Agora, one of the largest independent financial publishers in the world. If you would like to read more of Bill’s essays, sign-up for his free daily e-letter at Bill Bonner’s Diary of a Rogue Economist.

http://www.lewrockwell.com

    © 2013 Copyright The Daily Reckoning, Bill Bonner - All Rights Reserved
    Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Bill Bonner Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in