US Recession and Credit Crisis 2008
News_Letter / Credit Crisis 2008 Mar 10, 2008 - 08:34 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market continues to trend lower towards a retest of the January lows with an increasing probability that we are now in a bear market despite a bounce off the January lows as the market prices in a definite US Recession.
The economic situation continues to deteriorate as the credit crunch turns into a credit crisis that has yet to reach its bad debts climax.
The stock market continues to trend lower towards a retest of the January lows with an increasing probability that we are now in a bear market despite a bounce off the January lows as the market prices in a definite US Recession. The economic situation continues to deteriorate as the credit crunch turns into a credit crisis that has yet to reach its bad debts climax. The US Fed's strategy of providing the banking system with liquidity in exchange for bad debt as collateral is the same mistake that Japan made during the 1990's which resulted in a depression that lasts to this day. The consequence of rampant money supply growth is manifesting itself in inflation, this is something that the US Fed cannot deal with until AFTER the US Presidential election, and where the Fed goes so must the worlds central banks follow suit. Though the European Central Bank is attempting to hold the line against the building pressures for a rate cut in the face of inflation, but as soon as the economic picture turns decidedly negative so will the ECB cut rates in the near future. This implies that for the next 12 months at least the world has entered a stagflationary environment. Good for commodities, but bad for assets such as stocks and housing. Last weeks freebie from our friends at Elliott Wave International- the current issue of Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist- Worth $29 is Still available for literally just a few hours more so be quick if you have not already grabbed it! Click here Your stagvesting analyst, Nadeem Walayat,
By: Stephen_Lendman The arguments are so one-sided, it's practically a given that "peak oil" is real and threatening. Or is it? This article examines both sides. It lets readers decide and deals only with supply issues, not crucial environmental ones and the need to develop alternative energy sources. First some background.
By: Sean Brodrick These commodity markets are going wild, and I'm responding with major action — new commodity ETF recommendations I'm going to issue by mid-week, probably Wednesday. If you want to jump in, I must hear back by Tuesday. Think the recent price explosions have been climactic?!
By: Robert_McHugh_PhD This week saw a new all-time low in the Dollar, new all-time highs in Gold and Oil, but the damage continues in stocks. There was a lot of technical damage done to stock averages Friday. We got confirmation of 18 month, very Bearish Head & Shoulders tops patterns in several indices, as prices completed their right shoulders and fell decisively below necklines.
By: Alex_Wallenwein Super-Dangerous Dow-Gold Divergence - Gold's been going up and the Dow has been dropping for months, now. If this persists for more than maybe two more months, it can spell utter doom for global equities markets - and will cause a huge explosion in precious metals prices and shares.
By: John_Mauldin
The official number for employment suggested a loss of 63,000 jobs. But could it have been more like 200,000? And I will make a case for 2,000,000 lost jobs last month. This week we will take a look at the confusing labor-market picture in the US.
By: Alex_Wallenwein The pace of expansion of all forms of debt is decelerating in the fourth quarter of 2007. Domestic non-financial debt rose 8% as a whole over 2007, .75% lower than in 2006. That may not seem like a slowdown, but consumers are changing course at the fastest pace, slowing from a pace of 6.75% annualized growth of debt in the third quarter to 5.5% in the fourth quarter. For the year, household debt rose at 6.75% compared to 10.25% in 2006.
By: Zeal_LLC After sliding to its lowest levels in history this week, the flagging US dollar has captured the limelight. And it certainly should. The dollar is like nothing else, a critical linchpin that links every market and asset of global importance. The implications of the dollar's fall from grace are profound and universal.
By: Jim_Willie_CB The title should really be “Psychology of 1000-20-100” to give respect to the major signpost price targets. The $1000 gold target is within reach. The $20 silver target has been breached. The $100 crude oil price has been breached. Before long, all three price levels will serve as support. When a gold target of $1000 was proposed three to four years ago, most people dominated (or bound) by conventional thinking dismissed such talk as silly, irresponsible, even ludicrous.
By: Hans_Wagner If you want to beat the market, you need to invest with the trend. In looking at the trend, I believe it is best to begin with the big picture in mind and then work our way down to weekly and then daily views of the charts. You will notice that the chart and the value of the indicators change as we move from a monthly to a weekly and then a daily chart. This is a normal part of the technical analysis.
By: Dr_Krassimir_Petrov Economic reality will likely prove forecasts of major international institutions about Europe's 2008 growth prospects wrong. So, let us first see what they think; then we will see what I think and why.
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