Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

U.S. Sequester and Negative Economics?

Politics / Economic Austerity Mar 03, 2013 - 11:09 AM GMT

By: Ian_R_Campbell

Politics

I am sending this Newsletter today, Saturday, a departure from my normal practice, because of what I see as the importance of the inability of Washington politicians to - at least for the time being - come together on the so-called 'sequester budget cuts' that barring subsequent agreement have now taken effect.

As anyone in the world who can hear or read likely knows, last night U.S. President Obama signed an order putting the 'sequester budget cuts' in place. This means that between now and September 30 - the end of the U.S. Federal Government fiscal year, that absent subsequent negotiations and agreement that changes things - $85 billion in spending cuts will be made from the current 2013 U.S. federal spending budget (before these cuts, $3.8 trillion).


In the end, it seems to have come down to a complete obstinance on the part of the Republican party to bend on tax increases, with John Boehner, the Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives saying yesterday: "The discussion about revenue (read 'tax increases') is over. It's about taking on the spending problem". This strikes me as a statement that in itself can do little but influence increased (if such a thing is possible) polarization in Washington. Query: how can the House Speaker retract from such a 'set in concrete' statement going forward?

In my Newsletter yesterday, I said:

"If what happens is not a repeat of what happened in July/August 2011 at the time the most recent 'debt ceiling agreement' was reached:

I will be on 'the surprised' side of things; and,

I can't see how non-agreement can lead to anything but a weaker U.S. economy and a weaker U.S. Main Street."

I also said yesterday "I will find it very confusing if the financial markets do not react negatively if an agreement isn't reached on the sequester cuts". They have not done that so far - and that confuses me. Yesterday the Dow and S&P 500 Index went up by 35 points (14,090 close) and 3.52 points (1,518 close) respectively on March 1 - a day when the algorithms must have been processing minute by minute 'sequester news' at mind-boggling speed.

I certainly hold to the view that non-agreement must lead to both a weaker U.S. economy and a weaker U.S. Main Street. However, I am no longer nearly so sure that the 'last debt-ceiling negotiation scenario' will be repeated. This in particular after the aforementioned - what I think to be 'unnecessarily strong' - statement by Mr. Boehner.

That said Mr. Boehner also is reported as saying yesterday "I did lay out that the House is going to move a continuing resolution next week funding the government past March 27, and I'm hopeful that we won't have to deal with the threat of government shutdown while we're dealing with the sequester at the same time". Query: Does this infer further sequester discussions are not foreclosed, or does it simply mean 'dealing with the sequester consequences as they arise'?

I also in my Newsletter yesterday said:

"If I am assessing things correctly, $85 billion is about 2.2% of budgeted U.S. federal spending, and not quite 10% of the budgeted deficit. Of course, if the sequester cuts are made, the U.S. federal government revenue intake for fiscal 2013 will almost certainly be negatively impacted. The point in all this is that from my perspective the foregoing demonstrates 'how close to the line' America is from a federal fiscal point of view."

As I re-read that paragraph, I have concluded that what I said may be too opaque. To be clear, the point I was (and am) making is:

in the overall scheme of America's national debt and deficits, $85 billion per year is rather immaterial;

if one accepts $85 billion to be immaterial in a U.S. federal accounts context, the forecasted impact of the sequester cuts in a the next seven months on GDP (0.5% decline) is material, and lost jobs (400,000 - 750,000) are significant; and,

consider the negative impact on America's economy if this year's U.S. pre-sequester federal budgeted spend of $3.8 trillion was cut by $300 billion instead of by only $85 billion. Query: How much more would the negative leverage on U.S. economic performance then be, and would a $300 billion U.S. federal spending reduction result in an exponential negative economic impact?

Interestingly, I have seen no report or comment on what the resultant U.S. federal deficit is expected to be for fiscal 2013 following sequester cuts. If U.S. GDP indeed drops by 0.5% as a result of the sequester cuts, I would expect U.S. federal government revenues to fall from pre-sequester forecasts. If that is right, and I think it has to be, then what was forecast to be a $900 billion 2013 U.S. federal deficit will be more than the result derived by deducting the $85 billion in sequester cuts from the previously forecast $900 billion 2013 federal deficit ($815 billion).

That is perhaps a better way of explaining what I meant last Friday by the phrase "the foregoing demonstrates how close to the line America is from a federal fiscal point of view".

America is still without question the world's largest and most important economy. That said, you can only pump helium into a balloon for so long before it explodes. Typically an exploding balloon does not hurt anyone. America is not a balloon.

Ian R. Campbell, FCA, FCBV, is a recognized Canadian business valuation authority who shares his perspective about the economy, mining and the oil & gas industry on each trading day. Ian is also the founder of Stock Research Portal, which provides stock market data, analysis and research on over 1,600 Mining and Oil & Gas Companies listed on the Toronto and Venture Exchanges. Ian can be contacted at icampbell@srddi.com

© 2013 Copyright Ian R. Campbell - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in