What the Bank of Japan, China’s Government and the Fed Have in Common
Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing Mar 02, 2013 - 06:02 PM GMTAs we’ve noted in recent articles, the US Federal Reserve has blown another bubble in stocks and facilitating the exact same risk-taking behavior that brought about the 2008.
The Fed realizing that it’s done this, which is why it’s now trying to manage down expectations of future stimulus (see the multiple suggestions from Fed officials that the Fed might reduce QE before hitting its unemployment target).
The Fed is not the only Central Bank to have shifted tone.
Chinese authorities took a step to ease potential inflationary pressures Tuesday by using a key mechanism for the first time in eight months.
The move by the central bank to withdraw cash from the banking system is a reversal after months of pumping cash in. That cash flood was meant to reduce borrowing costs for businesses as the economy slowed last year—but recent data has shown growth picking up, along with the main determinants of inflation: housing and food prices.
The People’s Bank of China used a liquidity-draining tool in the interbank market that enables the central bank to borrow money from commercial lenders. It withdrew 30 billion yuan ($4.81 billion) by offering 28-day repurchase agreements, alternatively known as repos. The PBOC hadn’t offered repos since June.
“The central bank is trying to send a message that it will not tolerate too-easy liquidity conditions,” Dariusz Kowalczyk, a senior economist at Crédit Agricole, ACA.FR +0.99% wrote in a research note.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323495104578313541983212134.html
Investors are ignoring this story for the most part. This doesn’t bode well for the economy as China was the alleged growth story that pulled the world out of recession in 2009. China did this via a massive stimulus program equal to nearly 20% of GDP (not to mention a massive expansion of its banking system).
So if China is curbing its stimulus, the rest of the world will soon feel the impact.
Another Central Bank that has failed to engage in more monetary stimulus is the Central Bank of Japan. Despite, recently re-elected Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been talking down the Yen and urging the Bank of Japan to act aggressively to raise the stock market and Japanese economy, the Bank of Japan didn’t announce any new QE or stimulus in its latest meeting.
The significance of this is tremendous. Besides the Fed, the Bank of Japan is one of the most profligate money printers in the globe. For the Bank of Japan to NOT announce any new QE despite extreme pressure from Japan’s prime minister is yet another warning that something major has changed in the financial system.
This will end very badly. The Fed and other Central banks have set the stage for another Crash. And this time around its hands will be tied as it has used up all of its tools just creating this bubble.
THIS is the reason Central Banks are beginning to shift their tones. They realize they’ve blown another bubble and that we’re likely headed for another Crash. And this time around the Fed will be totally out of ammo to stop it. Unlike 2008 which was just a warm-up, this will be the REAL CRISIS featuring full-scale systemic failure.
So if you have not already taken steps to prepare for systemic failure, you NEED to do so NOW. We’re literally at most a few months, and very likely just a few weeks from the economy taking a massive downturn, potentially taking down the financial system with them. Think I’m joking? The Fed is pumping hundreds of BILLIONS of dollars into financial system right now trying to stop this from happening.
I’ve already alerted Private Wealth Advisory subscribers to 6 trades that will all produce HUGE profits as this mess collapses.
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Graham Sumers
Chief Market Strategist
Good Investing!
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Graham also writes Private Wealth Advisory, a monthly investment advisory focusing on the most lucrative investment opportunities the financial markets have to offer. Graham understands the big picture from both a macro-economic and capital in/outflow perspective. He translates his understanding into finding trends and undervalued investment opportunities months before the markets catch on: the Private Wealth Advisory portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 three of the last five years, including a 7% return in 2008 vs. a 37% loss for the S&P 500.
Previously, Graham worked as a Senior Financial Analyst covering global markets for several investment firms in the Mid-Atlantic region. He’s lived and performed research in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and the United States.
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