US Election Make or Break Tuesday for Democrats Clinton and Obama
Politics / US Politics Mar 02, 2008 - 03:25 PM GMT
It makes a refreshing ' CHANGE' as we have heard so many times over recent months, to have a real election campaign especially given today's hand picked Russian pseudo-election which effectively re-elects Putin for another 8 years.
But back to the US election - 'Mini Super Tuesday', 'Make or Break Tuesday', 'Critical Tuesday', which ever way you put it, next Tuesday could be the day that the Democrats choose their candidate for Novembers Presidential Election with a very high probability the Next President of the United States will be a Democrat given the ongoing economic collapse brought about by the failed Neo-con experiment that has conned the American public into following disastrous policies such as the invasion and occupation of Iraq, the cost of which is expected to exceed $3 trillions when the final bill is in. Coupled with imbecilic economic policies that has resulted in the US drifting into an Stagflation environment that usually proves extremely painful to pull oneself out of ! All of which was unnecessary had there been some semblance of competency in the White House these last 8 years, still this IS what America voted for twice.
So this time we can write off the republicans, even a war Hero called John McCain that's keeping George Bush 1000 miles from where ever he delivers his election speeches, from any real chance of winning the next US election.
The Democratic State of Delegates Play
Pledged | Super Delegates | Total | Delegates required | Lead | ||
Barack Obama | 1184 | 185 | 1369 | 656 | 102 | |
Hillary Clinton | 1031 | 236 | 1267 | 758 |
The winner is the first one to 2025 delegates, a majority of 4049 total delegates
To complicate matters, the democrats have two types of delegates Pledged and Super-delegates
3253 Pledged are those that pledge to vote for the candidate based on votes in the state they represent.
796 Are super-delegates which comprises democrat party members, governors, party leaders etc, and do not have to pledge their support for a candidate but can come out and declare their intention to support a particular candidate
Mini Super Tuesday
Ahead of Make or Break Tuesday, Barack Obama leads Hilary Clinton by 102 delegates.
On Tuesday the following states will vote indicating the number of delegates that are up for grabs:
State | Delegates | ||
Texas | 228 | ||
Ohio | 161 | 389 | |
Rhode Island | 32 | ||
Vermont | 23 | ||
Total | 444 |
The key is that whoever picks up Texas AND Ohio will win the democratic nomination on Tuesday.
However should each of the two big states go to Obama AND Clinton, then the contest remains open as the total delegate counts also comprise a significant number of super-delegates that could go against the state vote
In which case the attention will turn to the remaining big states to vote later this year which are -
Pennsylvania | 22-Apr | 188 | ||
North Carolina | 06-May | 134 | 322 |
The opinion polls currently indicate a dead heat between Clinton and Obama ahead of Tuesday, though as we have seen in recent weeks the polls have proven notoriously unreliable i.e. having utterly failed on Super Tuesday.
By Nadeem Walayat
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