Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - 21st Sep 19
Is Stock Market Price Revaluation Event About To Happen? - 21st Sep 19
Gold Leads, Will the Rest Follow? - 21st Sep 19
Are Cowboys Really Dreaming of... Electric Trucks? - 21st Sep 19
Gold among Negative-Yielding Bonds - 20th Sep 19
Panicky Fed Flooding Overnight Markets with Cash - 20th Sep 19
Uber Stock Price Will Crash on November 6 - 20th Sep 19
Semiconductor Stocks Sector Market & Economic Leader - 20th Sep 19
Learning Artificial Intelligence - What is a Neural Network? - 20th Sep 19
Precious Metals Setting Up Another Momentum Base/Bottom - 20th Sep 19
Small Marketing Budget? No Problem! - 20th Sep 19
The Many Forex Trading Opportunities the Fed Day Has Dealt Us - 19th Sep 19
Fed Cuts Interest Rates and Gold Drops. Again - 19th Sep 19
Silver Still Cheap Relative to Gold, Trend Forecast Update Video - 19th Sep 19
Baby Boomers Are the Worst Investors in the World - 19th Sep 19
Your $1,229 FREE Tticket to Elliott Market Analysis & Trading Set-ups - 19th Sep 19
Is The Stock Market Other Shoe About To Drop With Fed News? - 19th Sep 19
Bitcoin Price 2019 Trend Current State - 18th Sep 19
No More Realtors… These Start-ups Will Buy Your House in Less than 20 Days - 18th Sep 19
Gold Bugs And Manipulation Theorists Unite – Another “Manipulation” Indictment - 18th Sep 19
Central Bankers' Desperate Grab for Power - 18th Sep 19
Oil Shock! Will War Drums, Inflation Fears Ignite Gold and Silver Markets? - 18th Sep 19
Importance Of Internal Rate Of Return For A Business - 18th Sep 19
Gold Bull Market Ultimate Upside Target - 17th Sep 19
Gold Spikes on the Saudi Oil Attacks: Can It Last? - 17th Sep 19
Stock Market VIX To Begin A New Uptrend and What it Means - 17th Sep 19
Philippines, China and US: Joint Exploration Vs Rearmament and Nuclear Weapons - 17th Sep 19
What Are The Real Upside Targets For Crude Oil Price Post Drone Attack? - 17th Sep 19
Curse of Technology Weapons - 17th Sep 19
Media Hypes Recession Whilst Trump Proposes a Tax on Savings - 17th Sep 19
Understanding Ways To Stretch Your Investments Further - 17th Sep 19
Trading Natural Gas As The Season Changes - 16th Sep 19
Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - 16th Sep 19
These Indicators Point to an Early 2020 Economic Downturn - 16th Sep 19
Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - 16th Sep 19
Stock Market Looking Toppy - 16th Sep 19
Is the Stocks Bull Market Nearing an End? - 16th Sep 19
US Stock Market Indexes Continue to Rally Within A Defined Range - 16th Sep 19
What If Gold Is NOT In A New Bull Market? - 16th Sep 19
A History Lesson For Pundits Who Don’t Believe Stocks Are Overvalued - 16th Sep 19
The Disconnect Between Millennials and Real Estate - 16th Sep 19
Tech Giants Will Crash in the Next Stock Market Downturn - 15th Sep 19
Will Draghi’s Swan Song Revive the Eurozone? And Gold? - 15th Sep 19
The Race to Depreciate Fiat Currencies Is Accelerating - 15th Sep 19
Can Crypto casino beat Hybrid casino - 15th Sep 19
British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - 14th Sep 19
Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - 14th Sep 19
War Gaming the US-China Trade War - 14th Sep 19
Buying a Budgie, Parakeet for the First Time from a Pet Shop - Jollyes UK - 14th Sep 19
Crude Oil Price Setting Up For A Downside Price Rotation - 13th Sep 19
A “Looming” Recession Is a Gold Golden Opportunity - 13th Sep 19
Is 2019 Similar to 2007? What Does It Mean For Gold? - 13th Sep 19
How Did the Philippines Establish Itself as a World Leader in Call Centre Outsourcing? - 13th Sep 19
UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - 13th Sep 19
Energy Sector Reaches Key Low Point – Start Looking For The Next Move - 13th Sep 19
Weakening Shale Productivity "VERY Bullish" For Oil Prices - 13th Sep 19
Stock Market Dow to 38,000 by 2022 - 13th Sep 19 - readtheticker
Gold under NIRP? | Negative Interest Rates vs Bullion - 12th Sep 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads and Discs's Replace, Dealer Check and Cost - 12th Sep 19
Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - 12th Sep 19
Increased Pension Liabilities During the Coming Stock Market Crash - 12th Sep 19
Gold at Support: the Upcoming Move - 12th Sep 19
Precious Metals, US Dollar, Stocks – How It All Relates – Part II - 12th Sep 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Fiscal Cliff Investment Opportunities

Stock-Markets / Investing 2012 Nov 20, 2012 - 06:43 AM GMT

By: Money_Morning

Stock-Markets

Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: Many investors believe that a fiscal cliff "dive" is inevitable.

Even with the prospect of a deal lifting the markets yesterday, I can't say I disagree.

The blame game has already started and it's highly unlikely that we'll see anything other than more foolishness out of Washington. And so far all they have done is kick the can down the road to date.


So what can you do about it? Believe it or not, crises like these can be an ideal time to buy stocks. And gold. And oil. And certain kinds of bonds. And more.

The death of financial markets is almost always highly overrated.

Adding insult to injury, fiscal cliff or not, trying to time the markets is an exceptionally bad idea - 85% of all buy/sell decisions are incorrect, according to Barron's. Further, Dalbar data shows that the return of an average investor trying to time the market is a pathetic 1.9% per year versus the S&P 500 return of 8.4% over the same time period.

Over 20 years, that's the financial equivalent of taking a 342% hit in lost performance.

With that in mind, here's a five-point plan for turning the fiscal cliff into an outstanding opportunity.

1) Get ready to go bargain hunting
With Europe entering another recession and some parts of the world flirting with a protracted slowdown that's going to be more like a managed depression, things couldn't be more uncertain.

While I don't personally like this reality any more than you do, from an investment perspective I'm very happy to pick through the oversold stocks and go bargain hunting.

Why?

Because history's rearview mirrors show that fear, panic, crisis and stress are all classic signs associated with opportunity -- and profits.

This is particularly true for choices related to energy, resources and certain kinds of technology - all of which the world needs, as opposed to wants, and all of which are backed by billions of dollars flowing their way whether we go over the fiscal cliff or not.

2) Stress test yourself
Never mind the big banks or Wall Street's hooligans, take a good hard look in the mirror.

Many investors are completely unprepared for the psychological impact of our nation going over the edge. And you don't want to be one of them.

Read the fine print on your brokerage statements. Imagine what would happen if the markets drop even further. Are you prepared to go on the offensive? Can your portfolio handle a stock market plunge, or will you be left grasping at straws when the smoke clears?

Focus any discomfort you feel into something productive, like realigning your expectations, your portfolio and your investing tactics so you can capitalize on the opportunities a fiscal cliff dive will create.

The 50-40-10 model I recently addressed in this webinar with US Global CEO Frank Holmes is a great place to start because it ensures a constant blend of safety-first choices, discipline, and upside.

3) Decide under what conditions you will sell.
Many people assume that we will wake up one day and somebody will announce that America's gone over the fiscal cliff.

I don't think that's the case. The markets are already adjusting to that possibility and, while panic hasn't set in, it's only a matter of time if our leaders can't get their act together.

When that happens, the last place you want to be is standing on the sidelines wondering what to do.

Decide now - ahead of time - under what conditions you are going to sell and why.

Your decisions can be part of some elaborate plan or as simple as a 25% trailing stop. It really doesn't matter. That you are prepared ahead of time does.

This strikes some people as defeatist. That's nonsense. No investor has to suffer the ravages of a bear market if they've prepared ahead of time.

4) Make consistency your mantra
Despite unbelievably challenging fundamentals and more than 12 years of disjointed markets, many investors remain hypnotized by the promise of buying something cheap and having it turn into the next Google (NYSE: GOOG), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) or Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN).

This baffles me but I can understand their thinking. You've probably heard as many stories as I have over the years of people who have "made it big" buying some obscure company that turned into a gold mine. The greed gland is pretty powerful.

Just remember that huge profits come with huge risks. What people don't talk about is the fact that many of the most famous traders of our time - guys like Rogers, Soros, and Paulsen for example - work with huge amounts of capital and leverage.

Unless you are prepared to accept the risks like they do as part of a carefully disciplined overall investment plan, don't play the game. Volatility is not for the faint of heart.

For everyday investors, the real path to financial freedom and success over time is through smaller, consistent winners and making fewer mistakes.

This speaks to an investment philosophy grounded in strategies with higher probabilities of success like an emphasis on income and total returns, fortress-like stocks with "glocal" capabilities, put selling, resources and disciplined risk management.

Not coincidentally, those are all key attributes of our sister service, the Money Map Report.

5) Recognize that not all risks are the same
Wall Street's lawyers love to point out that all investments involve risk. I agree. But that's only half the story. What they don't tell you is that not all risks are the same.

That's why we prefer large "glocal" companies that are generally characterized by globally recognizable brands, have fortress-like balance sheets, and have long histories of raising dividends over time.

That's not to say there isn't a place for small cap stocks in your portfolio at the moment. There is -- especially when you can identify a specific catalyst for future profitability like a patent or innovative game-changing technology.

My favorite small caps right now are related to medical, bio, and defense tech. All three segments are game changers that quite literally could affect millions of people and produce some outrageous returns, too.

Just keep the risks in line with the rewards.

Source :http://moneymorning.com/2012/11/20/....

Money Morning/The Money Map Report

©2012 Monument Street Publishing. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), of content from this website, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Monument Street Publishing. 105 West Monument Street, Baltimore MD 21201, Email: customerservice@moneymorning.com

Disclaimer: Nothing published by Money Morning should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investent advice. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication, or after the mailing of printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended by Money Morning should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

Money Morning Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules