Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Learn to Spot Reliable Trading Setups: ANY Market, Any Market Time Frame - 21st Oct 19
How To Secure A Debt Consolidation Loan Even If You Have A Bad Credit Rating - 21st Oct 19
Kids Teepee Tent Fun from Amazon by Lavievert Review - 15% Discount! - 21st Oct 19
Stock Market Stalls: Caution Ahead - 21st Oct 19
Stock Market Crash Setup? - 21st Oct 19
More Stock Market Congestion (Distribution) - 21st Oct 19
Revisiting “Black Monday Stock Market Crash October 19 1987 - 21st Oct 19
Land Rover Discovery Sports Out of Warranty Top Money Saving Tips - 21st Oct 19
Investing lessons from the 1987 Stock Market Crash From Who Beat it - 20th Oct 19
Trade Wars: Facts And Fallacies - 20th Oct 19
The Gold Stocks Correction and What Lays Ahead - 19th Oct 19
Gold during Global Monetary Ease - 19th Oct 19
US Treasury Bonds Pause Near Resistance Before The Next Rally - 18th Oct 19
The Biggest Housing Boom in US History Has Just Begun - 18th Oct 19
British Pound Brexit Chaos GBP Trend Forecast - 18th Oct 19
Stocks Don’t Care About Trump Impeachment - 17th Oct 19
Currencies Show A Shift to Safety And Maturity – What Does It Mean? - 17th Oct 19
Stock Market Future Projected Cycles - 17th Oct 19
Weekly SPX & Gold Price Cycle Report - 17th Oct 19
What Makes United Markets Capital Different From Other Online Brokers? - 17th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis - 16th Oct 19
This Is Not a Money Printing Press - 16th Oct 19
Online Casino Operator LeoVegas is Optimistic about the Future - 16th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Elliott Wave Analysis Forecast - Video - 16th Oct 19
$100 Silver Has Come And Gone - 16th Oct 19
Stock Market Roll Over Risk to New highs in S&P 500 - 16th Oct 19
10 Best Trading Schools and Courses for Students - 16th Oct 19
Dow Stock Market Short-term Trend Analysis - 15th Oct 19
The Many Aligning Signals in Gold - 15th Oct 19
Market Action Suggests Downside in Precious Metals - 15th Oct 19
US Major Stock Market Indexes Retest Critical Price Channel Resistance - 15th Oct 19
“Baghad Jerome” Powell Denies the Fed Is Using Financial Crisis Tools - 15th Oct 19
British Pound GBP Trend Analysis - 14th Oct 19
A Guide to Financing Your Next Car - 14th Oct 19
America's Ruling Class - Underestimating Them & Overestimating Us - 14th Oct 19
Stock Market Range Bound - 14th Oct 19
Gold, Silver Bonds - Inflation in the Offing? - 14th Oct 19
East-West Trade War: Never Take a Knife to a Gunfight - 14th Oct 19
Consider Precious Metals for Insurance First, Profit Second... - 14th Oct 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

Stock Market Crash to Start This Morning!

Stock-Markets / Financial Crash Nov 16, 2012 - 03:34 AM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Stock-Markets

The fractals are getting shorter, which means that the market is gaining momentum as it declines.  Let’s examine the fractals making up the waves in the chart. 

First, a point of clarification.  I view the October 5 high as the Orthodox high, although the cycles called for the high on September 14.  In my opinion, the Elliott Waves fell in line by producing a truncated 5th wave on October 5.


Starting from the September 14 high, there were 3 fractals to October 5.  Their lengths were 34 hours, 43 hours and 26 hours.

From October 5 to October 18 there were two fractals, the first was 34 hours and the second was 30 hours.

From October 18 to November 1, there were two fractals of 21 hours each.

Since November 1, there have been five fractals, each at 17 hours duration.  The last one peaked at 2:00 pm Eastern time today. 

Today is another Pivot day, so we may see a further change in the fractals going forward.  They might compress to 12.9 hours, 11 hours or possibly 8.6 hours.  The next Pivot day is Tuesday, November 20.  The one following is on Friday, November 23.  This leaves us with the probability of taking profits most likely on Tuesday or Wednesday early morning.  If the decline lasts until Thanksgiving day, November 22, there will probably be a hue and cry for the Fed to do something about it, so I don’t expect the decline to last after next week…the worst that may happen is that it could last until the Friday after Thanksgiving.  Pray that the officials don’t close the market for more than 15 minutes or a half hour.  That would make these calculations a bit more difficult.

I expect the crash to start tomorrow morning.  A panic situation usually resolves in three days.  My best guess is that, if the fractals measure 8.6 hours each, we should be done by Tuesday morning, with the brunt of the crash on Monday.  12.9 hour fractals may prolong the crash until Wednesday morning.  The May 6, 2010 Flash Crash fractal was exactly 8.6 hours long.  Last year’s August 1 through August 9 Flash Crash consisted of 4 fractals in the following order; 21 hours, 11 hours, 9 hours and 6 hours. 

There is no telling what combination we may see, so I will simply have to monitor the fractals to gauge the time.  The wave structure suggests there may be at least 3-4 more fractals left in this decline, so compression will be the name of the game next week.

In regards to distance, I fully expect to meet or exceed the October 2011 low at 1974.77.  However, there are some additional issues in regards to the Yen, the Euro and High Yield markets that may put even more liquidity demands on the market. Plus margin calls…you get the picture.  Again, my model suggests that, if the SPX declines beneath 1100, there may be yet another 200-point drop in store.   That may mean the fractals may be shorter in time, but longer in distance as the crash persists.

I have just about worn out this topic, so I’ll call it a day.

Regards,

Tony

Our Investment Advisor Registration is on the Web

We are in the process of updating our website at www.thepracticalinvestor.com to have more information on our services. Log on and click on Advisor Registration to get more details.

If you are a client or wish to become one, please make an appointment to discuss our investment strategies by calling Connie or Tony at (517) 699-1554, ext 10 or 11. Or e-mail us at tpi@thepracticalinvestor.com .

Anthony M. Cherniawski, President and CIO http://www.thepracticalinvestor.com

As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

Anthony M. Cherniawski Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules