Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Spain Offers Yet Another Impossible Solution to Its Debt, Economic Problems

Politics / Eurozone Debt Crisis Nov 01, 2012 - 11:43 AM GMT

By: Graham_Summers

Politics

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSpain continues to heap one impossible idea on top of another.

The latest “plan” consists of Spain creating a bad bank called SAREB that will buy up bad assets in Spain in an effort to clean up the country’s finances.


SAREB was part of the €100 billion Spanish bailout plan which was set forth in June. Once again, none of it makes any sense.

Spain’s Bad Bank to Buy Up Assets

SAREB, which is set to begin operations on Dec. 1, will absorb soured investments that have dragged down the balance sheets of Spanish banks since the collapse of the country’s housing market four years ago.

Fernando Restoy, head of Spain’s bank-bailout fund, said SAREB will likely purchase about €60 billion of toxic assets using Spanish resources and some of the funds allocated under the bank-bailout agreement.

It will apply an average 63% discount on land and housing units and an average 46% discount on real estate loans, he said, and will aim to sell the assets to investors over the next 15 years, with a return on investment of at least 14% for any investors in the bad bank.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204789304578087030239493360.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Wait a second… isn’t Spain bankrupt?

After all, their regional bailout fund has used up all of its funds, the country has only received €30 billion of the original €100 billion bailout, and Spanish banks are now beyond broke, selling even Spanish sovereign bonds to free up cash to face a systemic bank run (18% of deposits have fled Spain this year alone).

So where exactly is the €60 billion going to come from? Even if Spain uses all of the €30 billion it’s received in bailout funds so far, it’s still €30 billion short.

Even if Spain were to get the funds together to do this… this move is still not big enough. Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy admitted in private that Spain’s real funding needs are in the ballpark of €500 billion. And that’s assuming he knows the true state of Spain’s finances (unlikely given that he’s a career politician with no financial background).

Folks, we’ve been through this whole mess before with Bankia.

For those who have forgotten, Bankia was planning on issuing a dividend just one month before it was nationalized. Then, within the span of a few weeks, it:

1)   Requested a bailout for €4.5 billion which eventually rose to €19 billion.

2)   Revised its 2011 profits to a €3.3 billion loss.

3)   Had to be nationalized.

This is what all of us should keep in mind as a true representation of Spain’s financial system: a completely artificial appearance that comes crashing down in a matter of days.

A few final thoughts on Spain:

1)   In June, Spanish banks were drawing €300 billion or so from the ECB, today that number is north of €400 billion. If things were improving it should be shrinking.

2)   As mentioned earlier, Spanish banks which were essentially the only buyers of Spanish sovereign bonds are now selling them to meet funding needs due to the country’s bank run. So who is going to buy Spanish sovereign bonds? The ECB? How and when?

3)   Spain’s unemployment just topped 25% (again the wrong direction for things to be moving).

At the end of the day, you can announce all the fancy sounding programs you like. But unless someone comes up with actual cash none of it announces to much other than political posturing.

With that in mind, Spain remains the primary issue for Europe. I cannot say when this house of cards will come crashing down, but crash it will. It’s only a matter of time.

Indeed, between Spain’s woes, a hard landing in China, the EU, China and US in recession, and the like, I cannot actually remember a single time in which the global economy and financial system have faced this many difficulties. And that includes the build up to the 2008 Crash.

Now more than ever, investors need to get access to high quality guidance and insights. There sheer magnitude of the issues the global financial system is facing is enormous!

Those investors looking for actionable investment ideas could also consider our Private Wealth Advisory newsletter: a bi-weekly detailed investment advisory service that distills the most important geopolitical, economic, and financial developments in the markets into concise investment strategies for individual investors.

To learn more about Private Wealth Advisory and how it can help you navigate the markets successfully…

Click Here Now!!!

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Good Investing!

http://gainspainscapital.com

PS. If you’re getting worried about the future of the stock market and have yet to take steps to prepare for the Second Round of the Financial Crisis… I highly suggest you download my FREE Special Report specifying exactly how to prepare for what’s to come.

I call it The Financial Crisis “Round Two” Survival Kit. And its 17 pages contain a wealth of information about portfolio protection, which investments to own and how to take out Catastrophe Insurance on the stock market (this “insurance” paid out triple digit gains in the Autumn of 2008).

Again, this is all 100% FREE. To pick up your copy today, got to http://www.gainspainscapital.com and click on FREE REPORTS.

Graham also writes Private Wealth Advisory, a monthly investment advisory focusing on the most lucrative investment opportunities the financial markets have to offer. Graham understands the big picture from both a macro-economic and capital in/outflow perspective. He translates his understanding into finding trends and undervalued investment opportunities months before the markets catch on: the Private Wealth Advisory portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 three of the last five years, including a 7% return in 2008 vs. a 37% loss for the S&P 500.

Previously, Graham worked as a Senior Financial Analyst covering global markets for several investment firms in the Mid-Atlantic region. He’s lived and performed research in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and the United States.

© 2012 Copyright Graham Summers - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Graham Summers Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in