Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
China's Grand Plan to Take Over the World - 19th Nov 19
Interest Rates Heading Zero or Negative to Prop Up Debt Bubble - 19th Nov 19
Plethora of Potential Financial Crisis Triggers - 19th Nov 19
Trade News Still Relevant? - 19th Nov 19
Comments on Catena Media Q3 Report 2019 - 19th Nov 19
Venezuela’s Hyperinflation Drags On For A Near Record—36 Months - 18th Nov 19
Intellectual Property as the New Guild System - 18th Nov 19
Gold Mining Stocks Q3’ 2019 Fundamentals - 18th Nov 19
The Best Way To Play The Coming Gold Boom - 18th Nov 19
What ECB’s Tiering Means for Gold - 17th Nov 19
DOJ Asked to Examine New Systemic Risk in Gold & Silver Markets - 17th Nov 19
Dow Jones Stock Market Cycle Update and are we there yet? - 17th Nov 19
When the Crude Oil Price Collapses Below $40 What Happens? PART III - 17th Nov 19
If History Repeats, Gold is Headed to $8,000 - 17th Nov 19
All You Need To Know About Cryptocurrency - 17th Nov 19
What happens To The Global Economy If Oil Collapses Below $40 – Part II - 15th Nov 19
America’s Exceptionalism’s Non-intervention Slide to Conquest, Empire - and Socialism - 15th Nov 19
Five Gold Charts to Contemplate as We Prepare for the New Year - 15th Nov 19
Best Gaming CPU Nov 2019 - Budget, Mid and High End PC System Processors - 15th Nov 19
Lend Money Without A Credit Check — Is That Possible? - 15th Nov 19
Gold and Silver Capitulation Time - 14th Nov 19
The Case for a Silver Price Rally - 14th Nov 19
What Happens To The Global Economy If the Oil Price Collapses Below $40 - 14th Nov 19
7 days of Free FX + Crypto Forecasts -- Join in - 14th Nov 19
How to Use Price Cycles and Profit as a Swing Trader – SPX, Bonds, Gold, Nat Gas - 13th Nov 19
Morrisons Throwing Thousands of Bonus More Points at Big Spend Shoppers - JACKPOT! - 13th Nov 19
What to Do NOW in Case of a Future Banking System Breakdown - 13th Nov 19
Why China is likely to remain the ‘world’s factory’ for some time to come - 13th Nov 19
Gold Price Breaks Down, Waving Good-bye to the 2019 Rally - 12th Nov 19
Fed Can't See the Bubbles Through the Lather - 12th Nov 19
Double 11 Record Sales Signal Strength of Chinese Consumption - 12th Nov 19
Welcome to the Zombie-land Of Oil, Gold and Stocks Investing – Part II - 12th Nov 19
Gold Retest Coming - 12th Nov 19
New Evidence Futures Markets Are Built for Manipulation - 12th Nov 19
Next 5 Year Future Proof Gaming PC Build Spec November 2019 - Ryzen 9 3900x, RTX 2080Ti... - 12th Nov 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

$4 Billion Golden Oppoerunity

Crude Oil Price Falls to a 3-Month Low: Why Blaming "Soft Economy" Isn't the Answer

Commodities / Crude Oil Oct 26, 2012 - 12:16 PM GMT

By: EWI

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAfter a 4-day losing streak, on October 23 crude oil futures fell as low as $85.69 a barrel -- the lowest price since July.

Predictably, the mainstream energy market observers have blamed the drop on "global economic worries." Of course, we have pointed out before how, on one recent occasion, oil fell in the face of positive economic expectations. And on another recent occasion, oil fell despite the absence of any real news, period.


So, the mainstream analysts have to do better than "global economic worries" to explain the latest oil selloff...except that they can't.

See, in the world of "fundamental" analysis, markets always react to something. If it's not A, then it's B; and if not B, then it's C. "Action" outside the markets produces a "reaction" inside them. So it's simply inconceivable for a conventional analyst to suggest anything other than an outside factor -- the handy "global economic worries," in this case -- to pin the October 23 selloff on.

Fine...except, doesn't every day now bring some "concern about global economic growth"?

Europe has been dealing with the debt crisis for several years now; China's economy has been cooling off; and right here in the U.S. -- well, every month it's been hit and miss with various economic indicators, from unemployment to manufacturing to consumer confidence.

One could argue that in this environment, oil prices should be half of what they are today. But they aren't. In fact, as recently as April, crude was trading well over $100 a barrel.

When it's all said and done, you have to accept the fact: To get serious about forecasting the future trend in crude, you have to consider something other than the proverbial "fundamentals." Elliott wave analysis offers a real alternative.

By studying price charts, wave analysis tracks and measures the changes in the market's collective psychology. After all, what moves market prices but the market participants? If you can forecast their bias, bullish or bearish, you can reasonably forecast the market. And right now can you see how EWI Founder and President Robert Prechter views the common argument over "peak oil" -- free. See below for details.


Free Oil Report from Robert Prechter

In July 2008, when crude oil prices were at $148 a barrel and "peak oil" bulls were forecasting a rise to $200, even $300 a barrel, contrarian technical analyst Robert Prechter took the opposite stance: "One of the greatest commodity tops of all time is due very soon." Six months later, a barrel of oil cost just $32. Now, you can read Prechter's big-picture outlook on the oil markets in a newly released report.

Follow this link to download Prechter's 26-page oil report now -- it's free >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Crude Oil Falls to a 3-Month Low: Why Blaming "Soft Economy" Isn't the Answer. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International
Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules