Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

What Gold Analyst Consensuses is Telling Us

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012 Sep 28, 2012 - 06:26 AM GMT

By: Clif_Droke

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe big news in the commodities world lately is $10/barrel drop in the oil price in the last several days. The decline was initially blamed on Fed-Ex lowering its outlook for global growth and industrial production when it reported its latest quarterly earnings. The world's second biggest package delivery company forecast a continued slowdown in global trade. Reports that Saudi Arabia is keeping production high to drive oil prices lower were also blamed.


The actual reason for the drop in crude oil was likely political; with an upcoming election, the current administration is pulling as many strings as it can to keep voters happy and remain in office. Gasoline prices above $4/gallon and crude oil above $100/barrel isn't politically acceptable so close to a major election.

The real action meanwhile has been in gold, silver and the mining stocks. The precious metals group has been relatively unaffected by the latest drop in oil and other commodities and for good reason: gold is perhaps the best pure measure of inflationary pressures. The coordinated bond-buying program of the European and U.S. central banks has given gold all the excuse it needs to continue its march to higher price levels. Silver meanwhile is riding the back of the gold bull market as the "poor man's gold."

Gold's ascent has been a combination of a weak dollar, which has been pushed down in recent weeks in anticipation of the central bank actions of the ECB and the Fed. The German's court decision to ratify the European Stability Mechanism of Euro 500 billion also boosted gold prices. The pledge by the Chinese government to raise subway and railway projects spending by RMB 800 billion last week and Premier Wen's confidence in achieving 2012's growth target benefit both risky and gold markets, as Austin Kiddle of Sharps Pixley pointed out.

Gold - Daily OHLC Chart

An analyst with a major U.S. investment bank has published an extremely bullish long-term forecast for gold in the wake of the Fed's QE3 and Operation Twist programs. What makes the prediction surprising is the fact that it comes from one of the more conservative financial institutions with an historically tepid gold outlook. Bank of America Merrill Lynch's Francisco Blanch predicted a gold price of $2,400 an ounce by the end of 2014 when the Fed says it will stop purchasing mortgages.

"Given the new open-ended nature of QE3, the upward pressure on gold prices should continue until employment is strong enough to require a change in policy," Blanch added. "In our view, this is unlikely to happen until the end of 2014."

This extremely bullish gold forecast contrasts with the median gold price forecast by financial analysts according to a recent Bloomberg report. The median forecast for gold in 2013 is $1,750; the range is from a low of $1,560 to $2,050 for next year. Clearly the analyst consensus is overly conservative. From a contrarian sentiment standpoint this is bullish for gold.

Meanwhile a Citibank analyst compared the gold price breakout in the week of 3 September, 2007 to that of the week of 27 August, 2012 and predicted gold price could reach $2,450 to $2,500 by Q1 2013.

2014: America's Date With Destiny

Take a journey into the future with me as we discover what the future may unfold in the fateful period leading up to - and following - the 120-year cycle bottom in late 2014.

Picking up where I left off in my previous work, The Stock Market Cycles, I expand on the Kress cycle narrative and explain how the 120-year Mega cycle influences the market, the economy and other aspects of American life and culture. My latest book, 2014: America's Date With Destiny, examines the most vital issues facing America and the global economy in the 2-3 years ahead.

The new book explains that the credit crisis of 2008 was merely the prelude in an intensifying global credit storm. If the basis for my prediction continue true to form - namely the long-term Kress cycles - the worst part of the crisis lies ahead in the years 2013-2014. The book is now available for sale at: http://www.clifdroke.com/books/destiny.html

Order today to receive your autographed copy and a FREE 1-month trial subscription to the Gold & Silver Stock Report newsletter. Published twice each week, the newsletter uses the method described in this book for making profitable trades among the actively traded gold mining shares.

By Clif Droke
www.clifdroke.com

Clif Droke is the editor of the daily Gold & Silver Stock Report. Published daily since 2002, the report provides forecasts and analysis of the leading gold, silver, uranium and energy stocks from a short-term technical standpoint. He is also the author of numerous books, including 'How to Read Chart Patterns for Greater Profits.' For more information visit www.clifdroke.com

Clif Droke Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in