Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
THEY DON'T RING THE BELL AT THE CRPTO MARKET TOP! - 20th Dec 24
CEREBUS IPO NVIDIA KILLER? - 18th Dec 24
Nvidia Stock 5X to 30X - 18th Dec 24
LRCX Stock Split - 18th Dec 24
Stock Market Expected Trend Forecast - 18th Dec 24
Silver’s Evolving Market: Bright Prospects and Lingering Challenges - 18th Dec 24
Extreme Levels of Work-for-Gold Ratio - 18th Dec 24
Tesla $460, Bitcoin $107k, S&P 6080 - The Pump Continues! - 16th Dec 24
Stock Market Risk to the Upside! S&P 7000 Forecast 2025 - 15th Dec 24
Stock Market 2025 Mid Decade Year - 15th Dec 24
Sheffield Christmas Market 2024 Is a Building Site - 15th Dec 24
Got Copper or Gold Miners? Watch Out - 15th Dec 24
Republican vs Democrat Presidents and the Stock Market - 13th Dec 24
Stock Market Up 8 Out of First 9 months - 13th Dec 24
What Does a Strong Sept Mean for the Stock Market? - 13th Dec 24
Is Trump the Most Pro-Stock Market President Ever? - 13th Dec 24
Interest Rates, Unemployment and the SPX - 13th Dec 24
Fed Balance Sheet Continues To Decline - 13th Dec 24
Trump Stocks and Crypto Mania 2025 Incoming as Bitcoin Breaks Above $100k - 8th Dec 24
Gold Price Multiple Confirmations - Are You Ready? - 8th Dec 24
Gold Price Monster Upleg Lives - 8th Dec 24
Stock & Crypto Markets Going into December 2024 - 2nd Dec 24
US Presidential Election Year Stock Market Seasonal Trend - 29th Nov 24
Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past - 29th Nov 24
Gold After Trump Wins - 29th Nov 24
The AI Stocks, Housing, Inflation and Bitcoin Crypto Mega-trends - 27th Nov 24
Gold Price Ahead of the Thanksgiving Weekend - 27th Nov 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast to June 2025 - 24th Nov 24
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Gold Long Term Bull Market

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012 Sep 26, 2012 - 12:17 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePatrick McGough writes: The Gold Bull market started during the first quarter of 2001, and has now been in play for approximately 11 1/2 years. Commodity cycles tend to have 13 year bull markets and 21 year bear markets. This completes a 34 year cycle and for the moment Gold appears to be in the last 1-1 1/2 years of this cycle. Fortunately for us traders this tends to be the most explosive part of the cycle. In the actual economy Gold really does not serve as a commodity but as a currency. If this were not the case why do central banks accumulate or hold gold as reserves? The yellow metal is truly the currency of last resort.


We have been counting Gold as a large impulse, but if one looks at the 1967-1980 bull market the count was certainly corrective. Furthermore no currency or commodity market moves with a long term impulse. The two other major Precious metals Platinum and Silver do not have long term impulses, so with that in mind the gold count was changed to reflect a long term corrective count. This does not change the long term targets, but only seeks to try and represent Gold’s true Elliott Wave (EW) nature.

Before moving down to the daily charts let’s take a look at two basic details in the weekly chart. When looking at waves for EW it is critical to remember the impulse numbers (5, 9, 13, 17, 21, 25, etc). First notice that Major a/Primary A completed with 17 waves up, and Major c/Primary A completed with 13 waves up. It would seem that Major c/Primary A “cycled” down one wave set. If this were to occur for Primary C we should expect 9 waves up for the final Major c.

The second detail is just some basic Fib projections.

Major a / Primary A (2001-2004) = 69%

Major c / Primary A (2004-2008) = 178%

Major a / Primary C (2008-2011) = 183%

Each of the major waves have approximately a 2.618 extension to the first major wave in the bull market. This leads to a rather simple bull market top projection (69% = $2580 & 180% = $4,270). As mentioned above these targets should be hit in the next 1 – 1 1/2 years. After this it may not be very wise to be long gold.

Medium Term

The current uptrend began in late June and ended an ~ 8 1/2 month correction from $1923 – $1526 (21%). From the truncated low of $1547 Gold has risen 16% to $1790. Notice there are two resistance pivots at $1793 and $1804. This area should prove to be an issue for Gold over the next few weeks.

Currently Gold has a significant negative divergence and looks like we could get a bearish MACD cross. We should expect Minor 4 to correct anywhere between $35 – $65, and the uptrend should then resume. Gold could potentially make a new high during this uptrend, but the $1800 – $1830 level should provide stiff resistance. First target for Intermediate i = $1820 – $1830 and second target new bull market highs ($1920-$1950).

Short Term

The shorter term charts tend to offer many more probabilities, so let’s try to view this time frame in the proper prospective. This impulse wave can be counted in a few different ways, but we try to stick to the most obvious count. The GLD recently ran into resistance at the March 2012 and November 2011 highs, and for the moment it appears Minor 4 started on Friday last week. Minor 4 should find support around the $1690-$1660 level in GLD.

Alternate Count

The truncated wave in late June causes technicians a minor problem. Was it really a truncated wave or a true uptrend? For the moment the best answer is that we can’t be 100% sure either way. For this reason an alternate count will be included on the GPX chart.

This count would mean Gold is most likely in Minor 1 up of a potentially extending Intermediate iii wave. The next correction will give us some clues as to whether or not this alternate count is viable. Enjoy the rest of this Gold bull market, since late next year will most likely end up marking the end of what has been a very nice bull run for the yellow metal.

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/...

http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2012 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in