Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Overview of Greek Elections

Politics / Euro-Zone Jun 15, 2012 - 07:07 AM GMT

By: Simit_Patel

Politics

Greece is holding elections this weekend, and the results of these elections could determine how Greece relates to the European Union. This in turn could significantly impact the Euro, which in turn will impact everything else, which means it's potentially a big deal.


The elections are to be held on the 17th. As such this Sunday's market open could be significant and could have huge gaps. You have been warned!

Here is a brief overview on what is going on:

1. Syriza is the 'no austerity' party. Here is a list of their campaign demands. They want to stay in the Eurozone. But, the IMF and the European Central Bank have stated that if Greek does not accept austerity, measures, it will not get the bailouts it wants. Former Greece prime minister Lucas Papademos has stated there is only enough money to keep the government going until the end of June. Bank runs have started in Greece, and this may lead to capital controls.

2. Syriza's main opponent in the elections is the New Democracy party. They are interested in complying fully with the EU requirements of accepting austerity in exchange for bailouts. The argument is that this is the safe route; that austerity, while painful, is better than life without bailouts which could lead to a complete breakdown of society.

There is a bit of a bluffing game going on. The EU is threatening to take away bailouts; Syriza is threatening to leave the Eurozone, and arguing that if they do leave, it will set off a contagion effect and everyone else will leave too. Then it's the EU that's finished -- not Greece.

The one thing Syriza and the EU agree on is that no one wants Greece to leave. Syriza knows this it would take a miracle to try to work out trade agreements outside the EU and sell people on holding the drachma. At the same time, the EU knows Syriza's bluff has some strength; other countries, namely Spain, are in a similar situation and have seen what austerity does.

Personally I think the compromise that will be reached is greater fiscal unity. Greece gets to stay in the Eurozone, gets some form of a bailout, but gives up independent fiscal policy. The central banks do what they do best and print as much money as needed to make this go over as smoothly as possible. The EU has already stated this much; Bank of Japan is on board with supporting as needed as well.

The details of what fiscal unity will look like and how the transition go down remain to be seen, though transferring national debt to the supranational level, and creating Eurobonds to pay bills, is an idea that has already been proposed. The proposal, called the European Redemption Pact, would place Germany in charge of Eurobonds, and would require member countries to pass off their excess debt -- currently being defined as any debt that is 60% above current GDP -- to a fund managed by Germany and paid off via the issuance of Eurobonds. Under the proposal, countries would need to pay 20% of their excess debt to the fund managed by Germany, so that there is some form of collateral for Eurobonds. Interestingly, gold has been listed as an accepted form of payment. This is another sign of gold returning to the monetary system. The more gold is seen as a way of solving the debt crisis, the more incentive monetary authorities will have to push the price of gold higher.

By Simit Patel
http://www.informedtrades.com

InformedTrades is an online community dedicated to helping individuals learn to trade the world's financial markets. Members earn prizes for sharing their knowledge, and the best contributions are compiled into InformedTrades University, the largest collection of free organized
learning material for traders on the web.

© 2012 Copyright Simit Patel - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in