While today's $45 plunge in spot gold has violated the monthly low at $1612.47 and pressed the price structure to a new 9-week reaction low at $1595.32, let's notice that the pattern emerging from the very big picture continues to carve out a massive high-level congestion area in the form of a large triangle that is perched atop a 12-year bull run.

At this juncture, based on the monthly chart, spot gold first must compromise the integrity of the lower triangle support line, now in the vicinity of $1557, and then plunge beneath the December 2011 low at $1522.48 to morph the triangle continuation pattern into a multi-month top pattern.

Barring the extension of acute weakness, and notwithstanding today's weakness and the damage inflicted to the nearer term technical set-up, for the time being it remains premature to declare the bull market in gold and the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) to be dead and buried.

By Mike Paulenoff

Mike Paulenoff is author of MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com), a real-time diary of his technical analysis and trading alerts on ETFs covering metals, energy, equity indices, currencies, Treasuries, and specific industries and international regions.

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