Ron Paul Supporters Beware of the Third Party Trap
ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2012 Apr 11, 2012 - 07:44 AM GMTBy: Ron_Holland
"Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." ~ Albert Einstein
Recently, Justin Raimondo wrote a thoughtful editorial Ron Don’t Let Your Heroic Effort End In Tampa.
I agree with Justin about how the GOP is actually a greater threat to our remaining liberties, wealth and the continuance of perpetual war than even the socialist Democrats.
Also I think he is right about the Paul’s young supporter demographics as this is the least likely group to vote in the conservative Republican primaries indicating his overall political support is substantially greater than the smaller vote totals might indicate in the closed primary process. He also asks Ron Paul where the movement he inspired and created should go following the GOP Tampa convention ending on August 30th.
Justin and many of my libertarian and freedom movement friends sincerely believe that Ron Paul should go the third party route following the convention but I have come to a totally different conclusion although I highly respect their opinions, views and intellect.
Any Movement Future Discussion Is For After the GOP Convention
While "where we go from here" is certainly a legitimate question, the Ron Paul campaign cannot answer this question or even publically explore the possibilities until after the convention. The political power of the Ron Paul delegates and campaign through the convention are totally dependent upon keeping the GOP establishment and Romney forces guessing on the future of the Ron Paul movement. Otherwise we will make ourselves irrelevant to the GOP sooner rather than later. Now they have to consider:
Will Paul endorse Romney or sit out the fall campaign and general election?
Will Ron Paul supporters vote for Romney even with an official Paul Campaign endorsement? Although the answer is certainly doubtful for millions of supporters but we still need to keep them guessing?
What would the Romney campaign need to offer the Ron Paul Revolution forces to get a majority of our support? Speaking only for myself, naming Rand Paul as his VP running mate and a promise of a Ron Paul cabinet appointment would get my attention. This would need to be followed by campaign pledges for real action on the Fed audit and a required declaration of war for future neocon inspired foreign military actions.
Will Ron Paul leave the convention and run on a third-party ticket thus insuring the defeat of Romney and the GOP but alienating much of the GOP against future action by our freedom forces within the Republican Party? I’m sure the GOP neocon elites prefer this option, as they are willing to lose an election in order to guarantee we are run out of the party but I don’t think this is in the best interest of our movement or the future of the United States.
Third Party Political Action Is An Establishment Trap
I believe third party action whether with the Libertarian Party or another 3rd or 4th party is political insanity and would constitute an establishment promoted death trap for millions of Ron Paul supporters and liberty advocates. It’s a trap folks for the Liberty movement advocated and crafted primarily by the enemies of freedom and the same GOP establishment that has already treated Ron Paul and we his supporters so badly.
Libertarian Party Results in U.S. presidential elections
The above graph from Wikipedia shows the utter and complete political failure the Libertarian Party has been since inception. I was involved in the 1970’s with the South Carolina LP but after a few years realized our minimal educational success, few converts and limited growth hampered by an almost complete news blackout and the instilled prejudice against third party voting was a poor use of limited time, resources and funding compared to non-political educational efforts.
I am not questioning the integrity or leadership of LP activists and supporters but only the difficult mandated structure and ballot access requirements designed by the two-party monopoly to limit the growth of third parties. In fact the Republicans and Democrats have worked together since the 1860’s to make sure they are the only real political game in town by increasing the difficulty of third party efforts and this is why none have risen to prominence and electoral victory since that time.
Today with the mandated ballot access petitioning and costs, a required organizational structure designed to promote continual infighting and the total lack of real election victories, the LP and other third parties are actually little more than a controlled and totally ineffective political opposition. Third parties exist and were tolerated by the two parties to keep libertarians and other small government advocates out of the controlled monopoly system. This worked well until the Ron Paul 2008 campaign.
The best I can tell, so far in the primary season. Ron Paul has received over a million votes not counting caucus states and if he stays in until the convention, the total will exceed two million. Not bad considering much of his constituency and support is outside the GOP. My guess is his supporter base and or protest vote is probably around 5–10 million.
During the last nine presidential elections over the last 36 years from 1976 through the 2008 elections the LP presidential candidates have received over the entire period less than 4 million votes. Although the LP has cycled many thousands of liberty supporters through the party including myself in the early years and provided an education forum for our ideas, historically news coverage at the national presidential campaign level has been miniscule at best.
The Ron Paul Revolution Is Transforming the GOP
I would suggest that the two Ron Paul GOP presidential nomination campaigns in 2008 and 2012 have brought more to the American ranks of the liberty movement than all the presidential campaigns of the LP and all the funding of free-market think tanks during the entire period.
All of this changed with Ron Paul’s 2008 GOP presidential campaign when hundreds of thousands of young people flooded into the Republican Party. The establishment ignored his candidacy, made fun of his freedom message and utilized the usual bag of dirty tricks in order to limit his support all to no avail. Again in 2011 and 2012, his vote totals more than doubled and freedom advocates are beginning to take over local party organizations.
With Paul running as a Republican, the party neocon leadership have been unable to stop the momentum of the Ron Paul Revolution especially involving young people. We have outraged the establishment by using their very party institutions, the debates etc. designed to marginalize us and other threats to their continued control and party domination as liberty vehicles to promote our movement and the Paul campaign.
Both Political Party Leaderships Are Controlled By Special Interests
If the young Paul supporters continue to participate in the GOP, then the establishment will be powerless to stop our eventual takeover at the county, state and potentially the national level as the older propagandized sheep-like, voters die off. The Internet reformation has made the old "lesser of two evils" strategy used by both political parties to motivate voting blocks is thankfully dying.
Today with alternative news sites and free market alternatives open for discovery, anyone willing to search the net will quickly realize the "lessor of two evils" is just propaganda. Both parties regardless of propaganda and rhetoric at election time have similar agendas and governance plans based on powerful special interests. Neither represents the people only special interests.
How ironic that my generation which had some faith and allegiance to the party leadership and yet believed in our constitutional and free-market principles stood by and did nothing to halt the growth of government and our loss of liberties by the GOP elites when they knew better. In every election they blindly cheered the election year rhetoric, voted as they were told and then were somehow surprised after each election that despite the same old campaign promises their candidates were little different from the Democrats. Government and foreign neocon style military actions increased while our personal and financial freedoms were decimated as surely by the GOP as the Democrats.
Remember both Alan Greenspan, the architect of the boom and 2008 meltdown and Ben Bernanke whose policies prolonged and deepened the recession/depression were appointed Chairman of the Federal Reserve by GOP presidents. Nixon gave us the Nixon Shock in 1971 unilaterally cancelling the direct convertibility of the US dollar to gold, George H.W. Bush pledged "no new taxes" in his 1988 campaign and then raised taxes and spending and his son, George W. started two major wars that continue even today.
Say No To Third Party Efforts Doomed To Failure
- The party hacks and establishment media have consistently floated trial balloons and repeatedly questioned Ron Paul about will he make a third party run if he fails to secure the GOP nomination. They want him to run third party.
- This is because a third party effort and likely vote total will be small like all previous third party presidential candidates because Americans historically do not vote for third party candidates. Polling percentages usually start high and continually drop until election day.
- Second, this would validate their claim and propaganda message that Ron Paul supporters are not real Republicans and add credibility to their goal to push us out of the party as we are in fact rapidly taking over precinct by precinct and county by county. Over the next four years they fear our liberty forces may well take over some states and then the establishment leaders are out of their powerful influence peddling positions.
- A third party run is a trap promoted by the GOP neocon elites and their buddies in the establishment news to destroy the growing power of our movement and our threat to their neocon controlled Republican Party. The rules third parties are required to operate under were designed by the democrats and republicans to ensure their control over the one party state operating as a two party monopoly.
- Their rules require third parties to spend millions on ballot access and set up third parties as fertile ground for black flag operations, attractive to extremist views and rules are designed to cripple our credibility, fritter away our financial resources and support on useless repeated ballot access drives each election year and divide our movement. Right now the Libertarian Party is only on the ballot access in 27 states so you can see the difficulties they face.
They want Ron Paul and us out of the Republican Party. He has created hundreds of times more support, education success and made our views more prominent in the press than has the LP since inception. A third party action is a recipe for disaster and failure designed and crafted by the GOP to get us out of their party. We should stay and fight for our liberties inside the GOP as only here using their institutions designed to control us do we have the chance to be free once again.
So What Is the Future For Liberty In the Political Process?
Lets take over the GOP from the inside rather than fight them in a rigged election process where third party candidates are hidden by a news blackout enforced by both parties and the main street news media. For example, how many times have the national LP candidates been in a debate with the candidates of the GOP and Democrats? Contrast this with Paul’s repeated debate inclusion during the 2012 primary season.
Americans historically do not for third party presidential candidates in the general election. At the end of this election will we be remembered and feared as a 15% voting block that is taking over the GOP one county at a time from the good ole boy establishment or do we fall for the third party attraction and receive a meaningless one time few percent of the national vote on November?
Our one chance for ultimate victory is to in fact take advantage of the GOP party rules used for years to rally conservative and free-market voters at election time. Of course, they then dismiss us after election day until the next siren call for voters to support a GOP with less government rhetoric but in fact almost a mirror image of the socialist Democrats. Like the unions and liberal voting blocks of the Democrats, we are considered little more than voting cannon fodder to be used at election time.
In my opinion, a rush to the Libertarian Party or another third party if Ron Paul doesn’t win the presidential nomination is a big mistake that could dramatically weaken the power and cripple the future viability of his liberty movement. I personally will not even consider voting for Romney unless he picks Ron or Rand Paul as his VP candidate and if it is Rand, Ron is offered a top cabinet position as Secretary of the Treasury etc.
Note, I’m certainly not urging Paul supporters to support a Romney/Paul ticket rather I’m keeping my options open in order to provide the maximum leverage to Paul forces at the convention by categorically stating "No Paul = No Vote For the Republican Ticket in November".
Second, no meaningless gestures like a prime convention-speaking slot or influence over the party platform will buy my support. I suggest you do the same until after the GOP convention, and then let your conscience be your guide.
A Wing & A Prayer
Our goal should be to build a permanent, expanding Paulian or liberty wing of the Republican Party over the next four years. I don’t believe we have a prayer of impacting policies or relevance in the political process if we go down the road of good intentions but unintended negative consequences of third party political action.
We should remain active in the GOP and work to gain majority control over local precincts, county organizations and play by the rules unlike many of the present party hacks and leaders. Second, we should run for office and support candidates especially at the legislature level that share our views. Third, run or support candidates running for Congress over the next four years that will advance our freedom oriented objectives concerning the Federal Reserve, rolling back the police state, sound money and an intelligent foreign policy.
Romney Has the Nomination But Will Lose In November Unless
The controlled and manipulated GOP nomination process is over except for the coronation convention and media circus. Its all fake just like the Hunger Games extravaganza and Mitt Romney will be the GOP presidential candidate but his victory march may well end where it begins in Tampa.
First in November he’ll automatically get the GOP moderates and the usual "status quo" Republican country club types who have no philosophy but just want to be on the winning team for contracts, graft and power. He will get endorsements and votes from social conservative supporters of Gingrich and Santorum and the earlier presidential candidates. But he will likely lose two key constituencies required for him to win against Obama and the Democratic machine and this is Ron Paul supporters and conservative evangelicals.
The GOP political establishment view is even supporters of Ron Paul will in the end vote Republican for Romney because his rhetoric is more free-market and capitalist than Obama. Well maybe but we only have to look at the failed George Bush regime to see how little that really means when we consider two failed wars, the market and real estate crash, the falling dollar and the bank and Wall Street bailouts. I suggest that very few of us Ron Paul supporters will vote for Romney because we agree with Justin Raimondo, the GOP establishment needs to be taught a lesson.
They do need to be taught a lesson but if we leave the GOP and go the third party route and Romney and the Republican candidates lose, then we will forgo any chance to takeover the GOP or for longer-term political action within the party thus wasting much of our internal organization success to date. This will validate the GOP leadership smear that we aren’t real Republicans and the growing power of freedom forces inside the party will be eliminated.
Will Ron Paulers Vote For Romney?
A young woman made the best case for Ron Paul supporters I’ve seen or read on Facebook several days ago. Quoting her from the Youtube video below made me realize how much the Ron Paul Campaign has accomplished so far in this election cycle. I urge you to watch and listen to her reply to a neocon friend who suggested, "a vote not cast for Romney is a vote for Obama." Therefore we should vote for Romney.
I urge you to watch her and listen to her passionate words on Youtube.
But her statement is almost as powerful in text form quoted below:
"We are not afraid to lose if losing means our integrity and principles remain with us. Our numbers have tripled in this election and we have already won. We have spread the message of individual liberty far and wide. Ron Paul has inspired the liberty movement in Africa, in Europe, even in Korea. Only a third of American colonists believed that the Revolutionary War was necessary and they changed the course of history forever.
It is our turn now to do the same. An election outcome will not change that. We are willing to lay down our lives for the cause of liberty if it is required of us and it may be. I welcome losing if the winning team is not supporting the principles this country was founded on.
But I will not go as a lamb to the slaughter and vote for someone who my heart, my gut and my reason tell me are not right for this country. Like Patrick Henry said, "I know not what course others will take but as for me, give me liberty or give me death"
This young women speaks for millions of us who will not vote for Mitt Romney in 2012 unless he unilaterally guarantees us he will advance our freedom agenda. He can do this by naming Rand Paul as his VP running mate and a promise of a Ron Paul cabinet appointment, followed by campaign pledges for real action on the Fed audit and a required declaration of war for future foreign military actions.
We live in a one party state and we have a chance to take over and redirect the GOP in coming years. Otherwise all the work Ron Paul and his freedom supporters have done will be lost in a third party effort. That may provide us satisfaction and this is what the GOP elites need but it is a very short sighted view of how we may still save these United States and the patriot dreams of our founding fathers.
I prefer watching the upcoming Hunger Gamesmovies as pure entertainment instead of what will be a sad dystopian future for the United States. I hope we all hang together and keep our powder dry until after the GOP convention, wait for Ron Paul to address us hopefully after Romney has responded favorably to the requirements of the Ron Paul Campaign and us his supporters. Then each of us can make our own election year choices.
Conclusion:
Mitt, we know you want very much to be President of the United States. I believe you will need to name an evangelical or mainline Christian as your running mate to have a chance to win a sizeable enough evangelical vote majority to have a chance to win the November election.
While the prejudice against Mormons is unfortunate it does exist due in part to some strange (to non members) LDS Church beliefs and practices combined with a lifetime of mostly negative evangelical preaching against the Church. This prejudice will negatively impact your votes especially in the South during the November election.
Second, you will also need the 10–15% of the electorate who consider themselves Ron Paul supporters and we will likely stay at home unless you nominate a Ron Paul free-market thinker to the ticket. The standard conservative neocon like Gingrich, Santorum and other former candidates in the primary will not meet our litmus test. Your first choice should be Ron or Rand Paul but others could include Tom Woods, Judge Napolitano and maybe a few others.
This is your decision to make but you will be defeated if you not bring both Ron Paul supporters and conservative Christians into your campaign and address our major concerns. Speaking as a Ron Paul supporter, my first editorial after the election, should you not address our concerns and lose in November, will be titled "Mitt, We Told You So."
Ron Holland [send him mail], a retirement consultant, works in Zurich and is a co-editor of the Swiss Mountain Vision Newsletter. He is the author of the special report, "Get Ready To Escape the Obama Retirement Trap" and you can email him for the complete report.
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