Let's notice that today's swoon in nearby NYMEX crude oil has pressed to a new corrective low at 101.49 off its March 1 high at $110.55. It just so happens that this morning's new low for the move has not been confirmed by my 4-hour RSI momentum gauge, which is our first warning signal that the selling pressure might be drying up for oil and the U.S. Oil Fund ETF (USO).

That said, the financial press continues to trumpet the idea that the U.S., France, U.K., and now Japan are ready to release oil jointly from their petroleum reserves (SPR's) in a coordinated intervention effort to drive down the price of global gasoline.

That threat appears to be getting more intense, and with the price of NYMEX oil already under pressure on the way to $100, my suspicion is that the "authorities" just might use the market's weakness to assist in the efficacy of intervention -- to make sure that oil breaks $100 -- to achieve publicity.

Should such a scenario unfold, then nearby oil will project into the $98-$95 target zone next.

By Mike Paulenoff

Mike Paulenoff is author of MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com), a real-time diary of his technical analysis and trading alerts on ETFs covering metals, energy, equity indices, currencies, Treasuries, and specific industries and international regions.

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