In our comparison chart between U.S. and German yield, notice that German 10-year yield is pressing against its key support plateau, and looks like it is about to break down, which probably is a warning either that some other negative surprise is approaching in Europe, or that the German economy is about to sputter -- or both. All of this will negatively impact U.S. growth and press Treasury yield lower, also impacting the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT).

So, we're keeping an eye on German 10-year YIELD for sure, especially now that just about everyone seems to think that European contagion has been quarantined.

By Mike Paulenoff

Mike Paulenoff is author of MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com), a real-time diary of his technical analysis and trading alerts on ETFs covering metals, energy, equity indices, currencies, Treasuries, and specific industries and international regions.

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