My big-picture analytics of spot gold argue that a 5.5 month cycle low ended -- and a new cycle started -- at the Dec 29 low of $1522.48, after a multi-month correction from the Sep 6 high of $1921.50.

The 21% decline concluded an intermediate-term correction within the larger, multi-year bull market in gold.

In addition, the climb from $1522.48 to the Feb 3 high at $1763.71 represents part of the first up-leg in a new "up-cycle" that should confront and hurdle next resistance at $1800/04 prior to the probability of a potentially deeper corrective period than the one we are currently in.

Only a decline that breaks $1685/80 will begin to compromise my current constructive outlook that projects a cycle apex sometime in late-April to early May for gold and the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD).

By Mike Paulenoff

Mike Paulenoff is author of MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com), a real-time diary of his technical analysis and trading alerts on ETFs covering metals, energy, equity indices, currencies, Treasuries, and specific industries and international regions.

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