Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Global Banking: Some Sectors Look as "Precarious as Ever" - 28th Oct 20
Silver Price Minor Dip Possible Before 2nd Major Upleg Starts - 28th Oct 20
�� How to Carve a Simple and Scary Pumpkin Face for Covid Halloween 2020 �� - 28th Oct 20
Gold Price One Last Dip Likely Then Major Upleg to New Highs - 28th Oct 20
Smart Money Is Going All-In On This New Gold Frontier - 28th Oct 20
Gold Stocks Still Correcting - 27th Oct 20
Gold and Crypto: Is This How Charts Look Before A Monetary Collapse? - 27th Oct 20
Silver's Coming Double Trigger Shotgun Price Explosion - 27th Oct 20
The $126 Billion Gold Opportunity in Australia - 27th Oct 20
Tips to Breeze through Your Spanish Classes Online - 27th Oct 20
Try The “Compounding Capital Gains” Strategy Today - 26th Oct 20
UK Coronavirus Broken Test and Trace System, 5 Days for Covid-19 Results! - 26th Oct 20
How the Coronavirus is Exacerbating Global Inequality, Hunger - 26th Oct 20
The Top Gold Stock for 2021 - 26th Oct 20
Corporate Earnings Season: Here's What Stock Investors Need to Know - 25th Oct 20
�� Halloween 2020 TESCO Supermarkes Shoppers Covid Panic Buying! �� - 25th Oct 20
Three Unstoppable Forces Set to Drive Silver Prices - 25th Oct 20
Car Insurance And Insurance Claims and Options - 25th Oct 20
Best Pressure Washer Review - Karcher K7 Full Control Unboxing - 25th Oct 20
Further Gold Price Pressure as the USDX Is About to Rally - 23rd Oct 20
Nasdaq Retests 11,735 Support - 23rd Oct 20
America’s Political and Financial Institutions Are Broken - 23rd Oct 20
Sayonara U.S.A. - 23rd Oct 20
Economic Contractions Overshadow ASEAN-6 Recovery - 23rd Oct 20
Doji Clusters Show Clear Support Ranges for Stock Market S&P500 Index - 23rd Oct 20
Silver Market - 22nd Oct 20
Goldman Sachs Likes Silver; Trump Wants Even More Stimulus - 22nd Oct 20
Hacking Wall Street to Close the Wealth Gap - 22nd Oct 20
Natural Gas/UNG Stepping GAP Patterns Suggest Pending Upside Breakout - 22nd Oct 20 -
NVIDIA CANCELS RTX 3070 16b RTX 3080 20gb GPU's Due to GDDR6X Memory Supply Issues - 22nd Oct 20
Zafira B Leaking Water Under Car - 22nd Oct 20
The Copper/Gold Ratio Would Change the Macro - 21st Oct 20
Are We Entering Stagflation That Will Boost Gold Price - 21st Oct 20
Crude Oil Price Stalls In Resistance Zone - 21st Oct 20
High-Profile Billionaire Gives Urgent Message to Stock Investors - 21st Oct 20
What's it Like to be a Budgie - Unique in a Cage 4K VR 360 - 21st Oct 20
Auto Trading: A Beginner Guide to Automation in Forex - 21st Oct 20
Gold Price Trend Forecast into 2021, Is Intel Dying?, Can Trump Win 2020? - 20th Oct 20
Gold Asks Where Is The Inflation - 20th Oct 20
Last Chance for this FREE Online Trading Course Worth $129 value - 20th Oct 20
More Short-term Stock Market Weakness Ahead - 20th Oct 20
Dell S3220DGF 32 Inch Curved Gaming Monitor Unboxing and Stand Assembly and Range of Movement - 20th Oct 20
Best Retail POS Software In Australia - 20th Oct 20
From Recession to an Ever-Deeper One - 19th Oct 20
Wales Closes Border With England, Stranded Motorists on Severn Bridge? Covid-19 Police Road Blocks - 19th Oct 20
Commodity Bull Market Cycle Starts with Euro and Dollar Trend Changes - 19th Oct 20
Stock Market Melt-Up Triggered a Short Squeeze In The NASDAQ and a Utilities Breakout - 19th Oct 20
Silver is Like Gold on Steroids - 19th Oct 20
Countdown to Election Mediocrity: Why Gold and Silver Can Protect Your Wealth - 19th Oct 20
“Hypergrowth” Is Spilling Into the Stock Market Like Never Before - 19th Oct 20
Is Oculus Quest 2 Good Upgrade for Samsung Gear VR Users? - 19th Oct 20
Low US Dollar Risky for Gold - 17th Oct 20
US 2020 Election: Are American's ready for Trump 2nd Term Twilight Zone Presidency? - 17th Oct 20
Custom Ryzen 5950x, 5900x, 5800x , RTX 3080, 3070 64gb DDR4 Gaming PC System Build Specs - 17th Oct 20
Gold Jumps above $1,900 Again - 16th Oct 20
US Economic Recovery Is in Need of Some Rescue - 16th Oct 20
Why You Should Focus on Growth Stocks Today - 16th Oct 20
Why Now is BEST Time to Upgrade Your PC System for Years - Ryzen 5000 CPUs, Nvidia RTX 3000 GPU's - 16th Oct 20
Beware of Trump’s October (November?) Election Surprise - 15th Oct 20
Stock Market SPY Retesting Critical Resistance From Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc - 15th Oct 20
Fed Chairman Begs Congress to Stimulate Beleaguered US Economy - 15th Oct 20
Is Gold Market Going Back Into the 1970s? - 15th Oct 20
Things you Should know before Trade Cryptos - 15th Oct 20
Gold and Silver Price Ready For Another Rally Attempt - 14th Oct 20
Do Low Interest Rates Mean Higher Stocks? Not so Fast… - 14th Oct 20
US Debt Is Going Up but Leaving GDP Behind - 14th Oct 20
Dell S3220DGF 31.5 Inch VA Gaming Monitor Amazon Prime Day Bargain Price! But WIll it Get Delivered? - 14th Oct 20
Karcher K7 Pressure Washer Amazon Prime Day Bargain 51% Discount! - 14th Oct 20
Top Strategies Day Traders Adopt - 14th Oct 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Waiting to Pounce on Gold and Silver Profits

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012 Feb 09, 2012 - 06:26 AM GMT

By: Adam_Brochert

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLet me start by re-iterating that I am a secular permabull on physical precious metals, particularly Gold. When you're dealing with the end of the road for the current international monetary system (a la the 1930s and the 1970s), there's only one asset that is a complete no-brainer to own. As a hint, that asset is shiny and owned by every central bank in the world "just in case."

However, I also like to trade. When trading, I would sell or buy anything if I though there was a profit to be had. For example, my subscribers and I have been short senior Gold stocks as a "scalp" trade over the past week. Does this make me a traitor? I don't think in those terms, as I am a more practical Gold bug/bull. The more paper I make, the more metal I can buy.



However, once the current short-term correction finishes, it is back to bull mode. Gold, silver, and Gold and silver stocks - they're all going to go higher. The only real conundrum is which of these items to buy as a bull trade once the correction is complete. In another week or so, we'll hit bottom and find out which of these items will outperform.

I like the prospects for the entire precious metals patch. From a trader's perspective, I think silver has an obvious minimum target when using the SLV ETF. Here's an 8 month daily chart of the SLV ETF thru today's close to show you what I mean:



Once we correct a little (likely in a scary fashion over a few days for silver and senior Gold stocks, as they both seem to enjoy volatility as much as Bernanke likes creating money out of thin air), a decent 15-20% move higher is likely. After that, we'll have to see. All precious metal bulls know that we'll ultimately make new highs in silver above $50/oz., but the exact timing is uncertain from a trader's perspective. This is why it is best to simply buy physical metal and hold on for the volatile ride. However, some of us like to speculate with a portion of our capital and this message is for you fellow punters out there in the PM patch.

Now, the senior Gold stocks are the basket case of the PM sector. All this crap about Gold stocks leveraging the price of Gold and having bullish fundamentals doesn't mean anything if they won't perform here and now. And I'll be honest, I'm very concerned about their recent performance. That doesn't mean there isn't money to be made trading the senior Gold stock indices like the GDX ETF, but I am not impressed with the move off the late December bottom so far. Here's an $HUI:$GOLD ratio chart to show you what I mean:



A permabull will tell you that any minute now, Gold stocks are going to blast higher and if you don't buy right now (yesterday, in fact), you're going to miss out on a quadrillion dollars. Me, I don't think so. I think this warning signal should be taken seriously. It means that the senior Gold stocks could be headed for something like this over the next few months (2 year daily chart of GDX thru today's close):



This is not a prediction, by the way, but if senior Gold stocks don't start outperforming Gold soon, don't be surprised if something like this happens. I trade Gold stocks, I don't own them. I prefer to own physical metal and then speculate in stocks and paper metal (as well as anything else that looks like it might be good for a winning trade). Investing and trading are very different and require a different type of focus and attitude. With physical Gold, I never worry about the price on a day-to-day or week-to-week basis (unless I am looking to buy more). Why? Because I understand the secular bull market in Gold and why it won't be over for some time. I never lose sleep or worry if Gold drops 10 or 20% when priced in my local currency (i.e. US Dollars). Wake me when the Dow to Gold ratio gets to 2 (and we may well go below 1 this cycle).

The bottom line is that we're going higher in the PM sector. Exactly how we get there, only Mr Market knows for sure. But I believe there are profits to be made speculating in the paper markets. After calling the exact day of the bottom in the PM patch for my subscribers and I in late December, we sold our long trading positions in senior Gold stocks 2 weeks ago in anticipation of the current correction. We went short senior Gold stocks on February 2nd, catching the high that day. In a week or so, we will be going long again in the PM sector. If you'd care to join us in the dark jungle known as the paper markets, a one month trial subscription is only $15. But please, don't even think about subscribing until you've secured a core investment in actual physical metal held outside the banking system.

Adam Brochert
abrochert@yahoo.com
http://goldversuspaper.blogspot.com

BIO: Markets and cycles are my new hobby. I've seen the writing on the wall for the U.S. and the global economy and I am seeking financial salvation for myself (and anyone else who cares to listen) while Rome burns around us.

© 2012 Copyright Adam Brochert - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules