Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Junior Gold Stocks Rebound from Lows

Stock-Markets / Gold & Silver Stocks Jan 30, 2012 - 07:19 AM GMT

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe junior sector had a very difficult year in 2011 but has led the recent recovery (at least statistically) in the precious metals sector. Two of our favorite exchange traded funds, GDXJ and ZJG.to are up 30% and 25% respectively. That exceeds GDX (large caps) which has rebounded 15%. These are significant gains but barely put a dent in the low valuations for the sector. Ratio analysis shows us how undervalued the smaller gold stocks are yet an examination of history shows this is not out of the ordinary at this point in a bull market.


First lets take a technical look at the juniors. We show ZJG.to and GDXJ in the chart below. ZJG.to is a Canadian junior ETF which is comprised of entirely gold companies while three of the top ten companies in GDXJ are silver companies. ZJG is nearing resistance at 20-21 while GDXJ is nearing resistance at 31-33. More importantly, both markets have broken out of their downtrends against Gold.

ZJG.TO (BMO Junior Gold Index ETF) TSE

Next we show a plot of our junior gold index (call it JGI), GLD and a ratio of JGI against GLD. Note that the ratio, which peaked at 0.7 in 2007, is currently at 0.4. JGI is presently at 66. Should Gold eventually break to new highs and JGI/GLD rise back to 0.7, then junior gold stocks would gain more than 100%. With large producers reporting record cash flow and profits, it is only a matter of time before all gold equities reach higher valuations against Gold itself.

Jr Golds vs. Gold

Our Junior Gold index as well as the other junior indices do not include the "true junior" companies which are of the microcap variety. The CDNX is basically an index for these types of companies. Most but not all of the companies within the CDNX are gold and silver related. Thus, in the chart below we decided to compare the CDNX to the CCI (continuous commodity index). The CCI is somewhat close to an all-time high while the ratio of the junior companies to the CCI is close to multi-year lows. With commodities not far off all time highs, one would expect the junior companies to be trading at higher levels.

$CDNX:$CCI (S&P/TSX Ventur/Reuters - CRB (*EOD)) CDNX/INDX

Lately we've been writing about how gold stocks are faring in comparison to previous equity bull markets. The comparison argues that gold stocks should fare well this year and well into 2013. Even though this bull market is in its 12th year, it remains a few years away from the start of a bubble. In a bubble, valuations expand far beyond fundamentals and it continues for several years. In order for this to happen, valuations must be low prior to the start of the bubble.

From early 1992 to 1995 the price to earnings ratio (PE) on the Nasdaq fell from 50 down to 20. Over the next two years, the PE ratio climbed from 20 back to 50. Then in the second half of 1997, the PE ratio surged past 50 and never looked back.

From 1973 to 1983, the PE on the Nikkei (Japan) ranged from mostly 15 to 23. After 1983, the PE ratio surged to new highs and eventually peaked at 70.

It is clear that prior to a market bubble, valuations are compelling. Not stretched or fair, but compelling. After all, a bubble needs time to develop and then have its final blowoff stage. Prior to the start, valuations begin to move from the low side to the high side. Then as the bubble really gets going valuations break to new records and surge to extremes.

Months ago we wrote about how the PE for large cap gold stocks was near a 10 year low. Now we see that the speculative side of the precious metals sector, (the juniors), is trading at near basement valuations. This is 12 years into a bull market. Not five or eight. It will take time for valuations of precious metals companies to move back to the high end of the range. Companies that grow their business and add value could perform fantastically thanks to a likely increase in the valuation of the sector.

If you'd like professional guidance in riding this bull market and uncovering the winning companies then consider learning more about our premium service.

Good Luck!

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT
Trendsman@Trendsman.com
Subscription Service

Trendsman” is an affiliate member of the Market Technicians Association (MTA) and is enrolled in their CMT Program, which certifies professionals in the field of technical analysis. He will be taking the final exam in Spring 07. Trendsman focuses on technical analysis but analyzes fundamentals and investor psychology in tandem with the charts. He credits his success to an immense love of the markets and an insatiable thirst for knowledge and profits.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in