Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Bullish Set Up on US Dollar

Currencies / US Dollar Jan 23, 2012 - 03:58 AM GMT

By: readtheticker

Currencies

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe US Federal Reserve meets next week (Jan 24/25) and many are expecting Bernanke to release the next financial QE details. The markets are poised for Ben next market leading action.


  • But, it looks like the next QE will be delayed until there is real pain in the markets: Fed To 'Hold Off' On QE.
  • Add to this the Greece bond deal with private hedge funds is not happening as quickly as the bullish crowd wants: Greek Bondholder Talks Stalled, Agreement Unlikely By Monday Deadline (no matter what CNBC and Bloomberg say, a deal that is not 100% means nothing).
  • Add to this lack luster 2011 Q4 earnings where many top line (ie Sales) results are missing there very much reduced forecasts.
  • Add to this the EURUSD has popped upto 1.2980 from 1.26, yet the COT reports show the large speculators actually increased shorts to a further record high, they are NOT short covering like the US Treasury wants them to do. See here: EUR Shorts Hit New Record
  • Eurozone could be posting recession numbers late January early February.

All this is bullish for the US Dollar. Yet the US Dollar and the SP500 has been doing all it can to ignore the fundamentals. Stocks within the NYSE index are very much stretched to the long side (a large percentage of stocks are above 70 on their RSI) showing complacency. Even the VIX fell below 20, wow.

At the moment it has been a dream start to 2012, the 30% less volume January market has allowed the 'big boys' to pump up stocks extremely cheaply. This means they can distribute stock float to the public at much better prices than when the SP500 was stuck under its 200 simple moving average.

We think the market is acting like 'buy the rumor sell the fact', the rumor is QE release, the fact is no QE. And thus the US dollar will continue on its trend along the blue dotted Gann Angle 1x2.

UUP Angles

At the moment cycles are confused (cycles are bullish on FXE), but we think below is the dominant cycle leading intermarket relationships and has done since 2006. The US Dollar 83 period weekly cycle.

UUP Cycle

The comments above are actually picking a top in the SP500, and one must be crazy to do that. Thus shorting stocks will not easy. It should be noted the last time Ben Bernanke said there was no QE the market dropped 20% (August/September 2011) a few weeks after. If you dont like the UUP bullish idea, check out TVIX as volatility just may kick off after Ben dissapoints, after all he has already leaked to the market that QE is not happening, so what more do you need.

Readtheticker

My website: www.readtheticker.com My blog: http://www.readtheticker.com/Pages/Blog1.aspx

We are financial market enthusiast using methods expressed by the Gann, Hurst and Wyckoff with a few of our own proprietary tools. Readtheticker.com provides online stock and index charts with commentary. We are not brokers, bankers, financial planners, hedge fund traders or investment advisors, we are private investors

© 2012 Copyright readtheticker - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The material is presented for educational purposes only and may contain errors or omissions and are subject to change without notice. Readtheticker.com (or 'RTT') members and or associates are NOT responsible for any actions you may take on any comments, advice,annotations or advertisement presented in this content. This material is not presented to be a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument (including but not limited to stocks, forex, options, bonds or futures, on any exchange in the world) or as 'investment advice'. Readtheticker.com members may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in