Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.UK General Election Exit Polls Forecast Accuracy - Nadeem_Walayat
2.What's Next for the Gold Price? - Axel_Merk
3.UK House Prices Correctly Forecast / Predicted Conservative Election Win 2015 - Nadeem_Walayat
4.15 Hours to Save England from SNP Scottish Nationalist Dictatorship - Election 2015 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Exit Poll Forecasts Conservative UK Election 2015 Win - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Gold And Silver China’s Pivotal Role: More Questions Than Answers. Not So For Charts - Michael_Noonan
7.Conservative Win 2015 UK General Election, BBC Forecast of 329 Seats - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Investing and the Lollapalooza Effect - Niels C. Jensen
9.Gold Price Target - Rambus_Chartology
10.Gold Price Nearing An Important Pivot Point - GoldSilverWorlds
Last 5 days
Are We in Another Credit Bubble? And Is It Different than Before? - 23rd May 15
The “Real Flash Crash” Will Scare You to Death - 23rd May 15
Venezuela: No Rule of Law, Bad Money - 23rd May 15
Robots That Can Beat the Market by 100% - 23rd May 15
Why Shake Shack Stock Is a Bad Investment - 23rd May 15
Gold Price Primary Driver Bullish - 23rd May 15
Time To Get Real About China - 22nd May 15
Gold Lifeboat to Global Economies “Titanic Problem” Warn HSBC - 22nd May 15
One Investment Could Save Two Generations' Retirements - 22nd May 15
Investing is About Identifying Gifted and Talented Camps - 22nd May 15
One of Europe's Latest Debt Nightmares - 22nd May 15
UK Immigration Crisis Could Prompt BREXIT, Propelling Britain Out of EU Despite German Factor - 22nd May 15
America Superpower 2016 - 21st May 15
Stock Market Secular Versus Cyclical Investing - 21st May 15
Banking Stocks Break Out with Higher Bond Yields - 21st May 15
The Tech Portfolio Built to Beat the Market - 21st May 15
Gold “Less Sexy” Than Bitcoin … For Now - GoldCore on CNBC - 21st May 15
The Russia-West Rivalry in the Balkans - 21st May 15
The US Dollar and the Precious Metals Complex - 21st May 15
Gold GLD ETF Drawdown Continues Unabated - 21st May 15
Who’s Killing the Stock Market? - 21st May 15
Your Best Way to Profit from the Narrowest Market in 20 Years - 21st May 15
Government Regulation and Economic Stagnation - 20th May 15
It’s Time to Hold More Cash and Buy Gold - 20th May 15
Choppy Asian Stock Markets - 20th May 15
Countdown to Global Financial Collapse - 20th May 15
Will Interest Rates Ever Rise? - 20th May 15
How to Cash in on Amazon Stock’s Amazing Cloud Success - 20th May 15
Three Hidden Forces Pushing Crude Oil Price Back Up - 20th May 15
U.S. Housing Market Strong Numbers in Perspective - 20th May 15
Greece Debt Crisis - Obama Has A Big Fat Greek Finger - 20th May 15
Now Is the Time to Own the Oil & Gas Leaders - 20th May 15
UK Deflation Warning - Bank of England Economic Propaganda to Print and Inflate Debt - 20th May 15
Trading Gold and Silver along with the Pros - 19th May 15
Gold Ticks Higher as London Housing Market Crash Looms? - 19th May 15
Global Stock Market, Commodities Group Analysis - 19th May 15
How Stock Investors Could Profit from the Dark Net Pattern That Few Others See - 19th May 15
The Patriot Act is now USA Freedom Act - 19th May 15
Investing in Europe? 5 Critical Insights to Boost Your Portfolio Now - 19th May 15
Gold Price Trend Forecast - 19th May 15
Stock Market Continues Defying Gravity, Dow New All Time High - 19th May 15
Are Gold and Interest Rates About To Take Off Higher? - 18th May 15
Nikkei Japanese Stock Index Set To Get Smashed - 18th May 15
Silver Price Projections For 2020 - 18th May 15
The IMF Leaks Greece, Institutions Forcing a Debt Default - 18th May 15
Europe's Stocks Bull Market Continues After Correction - 18th May 15
European Banks Vulnerable Today As 2008 Financial Crisis - 18th May 15
Payments, Currencies, and Broken Money - 18th May 15
Learning to Trade Markets - Dealing with Losing Trades - 18th May 15
Stock Market Sell in May and Go Away - Last Hurrah - Take2 - 18th May 15
The No. 1 Reason Stocks Will Climb Higher - 17th May 15
Gold, Silver Distorted Markets, Financial Sophistry, and Moral Hazard - 17th May 15
Stock Market CAC40 Trend Forecast - 17th May 15
Stock Market Diagonal Pattern Nearly Complete - 16th May 15
Gold And Silver - Elite's Game Of Jenga In Place. Your Move - 16th May 15
You’ll Never See a Better Moment to Invest in China - 16th May 15
Are Gold and Silver Stocks Breaking Out? - 16th May 15
War On Cash - Why the IRS Seized All the Money from a Country Store - 16th May 15
Is China Economy a Fire-Breathing Dragon or a Dragon on Fire? - 16th May 15
Silver Buying Only Starting - 16th May 15
Why Opinion Pollsters Got UK Election 2015 Badly Wrong - 15th May 15
Double Black Diamond - What a Bond Bear Market Looks Like - 15th May 15
This “Bubble” Is Set to Kick Off New Energy Profits - 15th May 15
German Gold Demand "Spikes"- Investment Demand Surges 63% - 15th May 15
How GDP Metrics Distort Our View of the Economy - 15th May 15
McDonald's Future Is Hard to Digest (NYSE: MCD) - 15th May 15
Dry Bulk Shipping Index Chart Analysis Update 2015 - 15th May 15
Economic Expansion Ahead? World Stock Markets Analysis - 15th May 15
Why Not Tell Greece How To Run A Democracy? - 15th May 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Biggest Debt Bomb in History

All You Need to Know About Iran, $200 Crude Oil, and $6.00 Gas

Commodities / Crude Oil Jan 16, 2012 - 07:13 AM GMT

By: Money_Morning

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJason Simpkins writes: If you're unsettled by the thought of gasoline at $4.00 a gallon, brace yourself.

With tensions between Iran and the West quickly escalating, we could see gas jump to $6.00 a gallon at the pump in a matter of months.


Make no mistake about it: If Iran were to follow through on its threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices would surge as high as $200 a barrel in matter of days.

But that's just the beginning...

A wider Iranian war could throw the entire region into chaos -- making $100 oil seem like a bargain.

None of this is hyperbole. In fact, these dangers are likely according to of one of world's leading energy analysts, Dr. Kent Moors.

Dr. Moors is an advisor to six of the world's top 10 oil companies, including natural gas producers throughout Russia, the Caspian Basin, the Persian Gulf and North Africa. He also consults for high-level officials from the U.S., Russian, Kazakh, Bahamian, Iraqi and Kurdish governments on all things energy related.

In short, Kent's insights are invaluable.

That's why we've given Dr. Moors a chance to address all of the concerns swirling around the energy market today.

In the interview that follows you'll learn what you really need to know about Iran, the global oil market, and most importantly, what you can do to profit...

Dr. Kent Moors on the Brewing Crisis in the Gulf
Q) Dr. Moors, how serious are the recent developments in Iran?

Moors: This is the most serious U.S.-Iranian crisis since the fall of the Shah in 1979. There's a very dangerous situation inside Iran that is only being accentuated by the oil market problems that have resulted from Western sanctions.

First off, on the Strait of Hormuz: This is the most significant oil choke point in the world. Some 35% of the world's seaborne oil shipments and at least 18% of daily global crude shipments pass through this narrow channel in the Persian Gulf. And while the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy is not large enough to blockade the Strait of Hormuz for any length of time, it could disrupt traffic.

Q) What effect would closing the Straits of Hormuz have on oil and gas prices?

Moors: Closing the strait would result in a rise in crude oil prices of between $20 and $40 a barrel in a matter of hours. Any interruption beyond 72 hours would push prices to between $150 and $200 a barrel.

As far as gas prices are concerned, the basic rule of thumb is that each $1.00 rise in a barrel of oil results in a 3.2-cent rise in a gallon of gasoline. So $200 oil would equal $6.00-plus gasoline.

Q) Why is this crisis unfolding right now?

Moors: Three major elements are causing Iran to become belligerent:

1.Massive economic and political problems inside the country.
2.The last round of sanctions that restricted Tehran's access to international banking.
3.And the European Union's (EU) decision to boycott Iranian crude imports.
I'll explain each of these further.

First, Iran is undergoing significant economic and political problems. The rial (the Iranian currency) has inflated almost 80% against the dollar in less than a year. The government has not accounted for almost $120 billion in oil proceeds kept out of the country, resulting in a split between Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and some of his former supporters in the Majlis (parliament). Several of the president's closest advisors are, or shortly will be, under indictment for corruption. That includes a multi-billion dollar case of banking fraud, the largest in the country's history.

Ahmadinejad is in a flat out political war with both the supreme religious leader Ayatollah Khamenei and major clerics.

Now come the sanctions, which have gotten unbearably strict.

The last round of U.S., EU and United Nations (UN) sanctions began cutting Tehran off from international banking. Since global oil sales are denominated in dollars, access to exchange and clearing banks is essential.

Germany, under pressure from Washington, closed Europäish-Iranische Handelsbank (EIH). This small bank is Hamburg-based but Iranian-owned and registered by the Bundesbank (German Central Bank). American intelligence and Treasury officials are convinced (almost certainly correctly) that EIH had been a primary means through which Tehran accessed the international exchange, acquired equipment for its nuclear program, financed arms deals, and provided subsidies to Hezbollah and Hamas.

That was followed by the end of Asian Clearing Union (ACU) services for Iranian oil sales (despite Iran being one of the ACU members). That resulted in a full-blown crisis in India, where Iranian crude imports are essential. New Delhi had no mechanism to pay for the consignments until it set up a very inefficient system of rupee accounts in Turkish banks to exchange them for rials.

Iran must now resort to inefficient and costly substitutes - such as shadowy exchanges around the Dubai Exchange and barter arrangements (especially with China) via the Singapore Exchange. Since China has a trade surplus with Iran, it can effectively finance its crude purchases with its own exports.

Finally, the EU has decided to stop importing Iranian oil. Europe is the second-largest buyer of Iranian crude after China. Iran cannot find customers to replace such a large volume in short-order. The EU must be careful not to spike the price of crude through such a policy, especially for certain member countries already having problems of their own.

Greece, for example, usually receives a third of its crude oil directly or indirectly from Iran. Spain also would be immediately impacted. There's also a range of daily swap contracts in Europe involving Iranian oil as an element. These would also be thrown out of balance resulting in a price rise.

Risk is now an exacerbating concern in the oil market. The Iranian situation is rapidly becoming a major crisis.

Q) So what's the next move? How do you see this crisis playing out over the next several months?

Moors: The crisis will probably intensify. Western intelligence agencies have already concluded Iran will get nuclear weapons at the current rate of development. The attempt now is to destabilizeIran internally - hence the latest round of sanctions. Tehran will not allow this to happen. Threateningto close the Strait of Hormuz is one response;moves to destabilize the regionwill be another. Iran is a main sponsor of both Hezbollah and Hamas and neitherof these will sit idly by and have a financiallifeline cut.

Saudi Arabia will increase its own pressure against Iran, while any genuine attempt toclose the Strait will be met with an immediate Saudi response.

Q) Finally, how can investors profit? In the past, Money Morning has advocated exchange-traded funds such as the United States Oil Fund LP (NYSE: USO) and stocks as Suncor Energy (NYSE: SU) as ways to profit from higher oil prices. Are these stocks still good investments?

The longer the crisis remains, the greater the benefit from emphasizing North American-based production.

Companies - like the Calgary-based Suncor - that are active in Canada's oil sands are one way for investors to go. According to the government of Alberta, nearly 173 billion barrels of recoverable oil rest in these tar sands, based on current production costs. This represents nearly 75% of the total North American reserves currently available. Canada is the largest supplier of oil and gas to the United States, shipping approximately 75% of its exports here each month.

Kent discusses energy-related investment opportunities in depth in his ever-popular Energy Advantage newsletter.

You can learn more about his Energy Advantage newsletter and the coming oil supply constriction by clicking here.

Source :http://moneymorning.com/2012/01/16/all-you-need-to-know-about-iran-200-oil-and-6-00-gas/

Money Morning/The Money Map Report

©2012 Monument Street Publishing. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), of content from this website, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Monument Street Publishing. 105 West Monument Street, Baltimore MD 21201, Email: customerservice@moneymorning.com

Disclaimer: Nothing published by Money Morning should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investent advice. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication, or after the mailing of printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended by Money Morning should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

Money Morning Archive

© 2005-2015 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Biggest Debt Bomb in History