Since its Sept-Oct recovery rally peak at $35.71, spot silver prices have stair-stepped to the downside towards a retest of the Sep 26 spike low at $26.02. If violated and sustained, this should trigger a final bout of long liquidation that presses silver into a minimum target zone in the vicinity of $25.00, but possibly into the $22.00-$20.00 target support zone, where I will be expect price stability ahead of the emergence of a sharp recovery rally period.

At this juncture, only a sudden sharp upside reversal that hurdles and sustains above $31.70 will neutralize my still-bearish near-term outlook for silver and the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV).

Silver Wheaton (SLW), too, is on the defensive, and also still points lower, into an optimal target zone of 23.75 to 22.00 prior to my expectation of a significant intermediate-term low, followed by a powerful new bull leg in its longer-term bull trend.

At this juncture, only a rally that hurdles 32.00 will neutralize my current outlook.

By Mike Paulenoff

Mike Paulenoff is author of MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com), a real-time diary of his technical analysis and trading alerts on ETFs covering metals, energy, equity indices, currencies, Treasuries, and specific industries and international regions.

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