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Multiple Stock Market Crash Hindenburg Crash Omens

Stock-Markets / Financial Crash Dec 15, 2011 - 02:42 PM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Stock-Markets

The NYSE gave us a second Hindenburg Omen yesterday. As I said earlier, I just noticed the first one on Tuesday. There may even have been one on Monday, as well. The point is, Hindenburg Omens come in clusters. A single omen has no meaning, but multiple omens are the harbingers of crashes.


The S&P futures are up to 1215.00 this morning, which translates to approximately 1219.00 in the cash market. My model suggests that the SPX will do a touchback of its mid-cycle resistance line at 1224.16 or its 50 day moving average at 1225.38. Timelines; the model suggests the retracement may be over by noon (EST) today.

If the SPX resumes its decline by late morning or early afternoon, there may potentially be as much as $2.6 billion worth of open interest contracts in puts trapped at 1225.00. At that point, there will be no other form of hedging than to sell short.

So, if resistance holds at 1225 and the SPX begins its decline, look for a sudden spike in volume that announces a potential crash. Of course, Wall Street may find a way to dodge this bullet as well. So I am just the messenger announcing the bullet that they must dodge by the end of the day.

In the meantime, traders are already on edge due to the increased volatility.

Regards,

Tony

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As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

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