Barton Biggs Flips to Being Bullish on Stocks, Argues he Was Not Bearish, Favors U.S. and Asia
Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011 Dec 13, 2011 - 03:16 AM GMTBy: Bloomberg
Barton Biggs, founder of Traxis Partners, spoke to Bloomberg TV's Betty Liu and said he's still bullish on stocks. Biggs said that "I'm biased on the long side" and that "U.S. big-capitalization, U.S. stocks and Asian stocks are the best houses in a fairly tough, bad neighborhood."
Biggs on his current position:
"I am not completely neutral. I am biased toward the long side because I think that U.S. big-capitalization, U.S. stocks and Asian stocks, are the best houses in a fairly tough bad neighborhood. And so I am not necessarily bearish on stocks in all places, but I am cautious. I do not have a strong view as to what is going to happen in the next four weeks."
On where he's making the best returns:
"In the next few weeks, I think I will make my best returns in India and Asia. And Southeast Asia, to be specific about it, and China. I think the numbers last week from China on inflation, and the decline in pork prices, indicates inflation will continue keep coming down. That will get the Chinese the option to reduce rates further and reduce reserve requirements. I think the Chinese will engineer a successful soft landing and that market is poised to do well."
On whether he miscapitalized on the market rally that started in late November:
"What I said in that interview was that there was the potential for a serious decline back to the lows of 2008. But there was another scenario, and that scenario was that we were going to work our way through this sovereign debt crisis. I said I was agnostic as to which way it was going to go. And I am still agnostic and I am in a moderately exposed position. I am roughly 60%, 70% net long and I intend to stay there. I never said that I thought it was a 1-way trip back to the lows and that was the only alternative."
"The failure of the supercommittee did increase the odds of a double dip, but we seemed to have worked our way through it. The high frequency economic data are very encouraging in the U.S. I give what the Europeans did last week a B+. This is a seminal event in the history of Europe. World War II was about Germany trying to take over and control and rule Europe. The Germans lost that war, and we and the British and the French won that war. This is a new war, and the bank and the Germans believe that their way of austerity and carefulness and not overspending is the best way forward. They are imposing that on Europe, so we are trying to feel our way through it. I could make a case that we could go up 20% or go down 20%."
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