A Stock Market Trifecta of Sell Signals

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The NDX has now crossed and back-tested the lower trendline of its Broadening Top at 2312.00 and the intermediated-term trend support at 2306.00. This gives the NDX a confirmed sell signal. The next probable support is the neckline at 2292.00, which happens to correspond with hourly cycle bottom support. Once these are all crossed, we will have a trifecta (or possibly a “fourfecta”) of sell signals. This would put the Head & Shoulders target in play.

The Head & Shoulders targets usually run the gamut between 1.5X to 2.62X the length of wave one. The minimum target annotated in the chart is 1.87X. In the first wave down ending in August, wave three was 2.75 times the length of wave one, so that may set a minimum standard in fractal relationships. If a panic selloff occurs, it appears that the next wave could be as large as 4.5X the length of wave one (the Broadening Wedge target). That is why I am annotating both targets. The reality may be somewhere in between, but I wish to inform you of the range of probabilities for this decline.

The SPX is getting a little "buy the dip" action at 1226.00. You can see where that comes from on the chart since traders often will put buy orders at the previous low.

This won't last, because a retest of the neckline/Diamond Formation trendline is likely to send the SPX much lower. However, the powers that be may use this bounce simply to buy time until trading closes on index options at noon today. This will trap the options sellers if the market continues its decline later in the afternoon.

It is possible that the big-money may try to keep the market afloat until Friday morning, when the index options are settled.

Good luck and good trading!

Regards,

Tony

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