Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

A Democrat In the White House is Better For Stocks?

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011 Nov 12, 2011 - 11:34 AM GMT

By: Sy_Harding

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe lead-up to next year’s election will bring a lot of claims from both parties. I thought I’d check some likely ones to make sure I don’t fall into the ‘lazy trap’ of repeating popular beliefs as fact when they might not be.

I was more than mildly surprised by my research.


It’s common knowledge, popular belief, historical fact, that the Republican Party is better for business, corporate profits, and the stock market – isn’t it? Democrats are more interested in pushing socialistic programs at the expense of business – aren’t they?

But wait a minute!

The following table shows the Dow’s gains and losses under Republican and Democratic Presidents over the last 50 years.

Over six Democratic terms the Dow gained 247.9%, or an average of 41.3% per term.

Over seven Republican terms the Dow gained 147.1%, or an average of 21.0% per term.

President

R/D

Term

Beginning

Dow

Ending
Dow

Gain/
Loss

Kennedy/
Johnson

Dem

1961-65

615.9

874.1

+ 41.9%

Johnson

Dem

1965-69

874.1

945.1

+ 8.1%

Nixon

Rep

1969-73

945.1

1020

+ 7.9%

Nixon/
Ford

Rep

1973-77

1020

1005

- 0.1%

Carter

Dem

1977-81

1005

964.0

- 4.1%

Reagan

Rep

1981-85

964.0

1211

+ 25.6%

Reagan

Rep

1985-89

1211

2168

+ 79.0%

Bush Sr.

Rep

1989-93

2168

3301

+ 52.3%

Clinton

Dem

1993-97

3301

6448

+ 95.3%

Clinton

Dem

1997-01

6448

10786

+ 67.3%

Bush Jr.

Rep

2001-05

10786

10783

-

Bush Jr.

Rep

2005-09

10783

8776

- 18.6%

Obama

Dem

2009-11*

8776

11955

+ 36.3%

*To October 30, 2011.

Could it be? Over the last 50 years investors, their portfolios, 401K and IRA plans, have made almost double the returns under Democratic Presidents as under Republican Presidents?

I then went back 110 years to 1900. The same pattern emerged, although the difference was not as striking as it has been for the last 50 years. From 1901 to 1961 the Dow increased an average of 36.7% per term when the president was a Democrat, and 32.1% when a Republican was in the White House.

The influence of one party or the other on the strength of the economy, business prosperity, and the stock market has clearly not been as popular wisdom suggests.

Sy Harding is president of Asset Management Research Corp., and editor of the free market blog Street Smart Post.

© 2011 Copyright Sy Harding- All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in