Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Yuan Gold Contacts a Step toward Reserve Currency

Currencies / China Currency Yuan Oct 23, 2011 - 02:10 AM GMT

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

Currencies

On Monday, the first gold contracts denominated in the Chinese Renminbi (also known informally as “yuan”) came to the Hong Kong market.  Analysts have been quick to note the implications of a yuan-denominated contract, realizing that the new contract could drive nearly three times as much demand as the dollar-denominated contract.


Looking at the yuan product from the macro-view, a move into gold is about more than just gold—it’s about reserve currency status. 

Dollar’s Monopoly

The US Dollar has a monopoly as the world’s reserve currency.  The size and scope of the US economy and financial markets, combined with the relative stability of the political climate, made the US dollar a preferred currency for international trade. 

However, the reason most cite for dollar dominance isn’t the United States’ role in international commerce, but its monopoly on a single product—oil.  In an agreement with Saudi Arabia, the United States effectively tied the global oil market to the US dollar.  No other currencies could be used to purchase “black gold,” the driver of modern industry.

Signs of Defiance

As China grows, it naturally wants to extend its reach as an economic powerhouse.  Recently, in a move that rattled those who see the dollar as the only reserve currency, China agreed to trade oil and energy products with Russia in their own currencies.  This should have been seen as a warning sign, a move that would lead to new policies to make the Renminbi a global currency for commerce.

Relative to other commodities, gold is relatively unimportant to commerce.  Most of us can keep our cars running and the factories on without gold. 

Renminbi Goes Global

Gold is a very important commodity in the realm of modern finance, however.  In allowing the markets to buy gold denominated in the Chinese currency, investors can essentially exchange yuan directly for other currencies, using gold as a proxy.

That is to say investors now have a binary trade to buy and sell Renminbi.  Buying the Renminbi requires holding a short gold position in yuan and a long gold position denominated in another currency.   Once the gold is netted out by equal short and long positions, investors have only foreign currency exposure.

Never before has it been so easy for investors to buy and sell Chinese Renminbi directly or indirectly.  Investors have long sought to play the rising Renminbi, but Chinese capital controls kept the currency as a primarily local institution.  Now it’s available to most everyone, and with two simple transactions, enough Renminbi can be purchased, provided there’s enough gold available to back each trade.

And so this is where the Chinese realize the importance of gold.  Allowing the yuan-denominated contract to trade will only increase investor appetite for other yuan-denominated commodities.  While oil contracts may be a few months or years away, the reality is that the Chinese are positioned to make the Renminbi a world reserve currency.  It’s only a matter of a few new commodity contracts to get the world’s attention.

Ian Fletcher is the author of the new book Free Trade Doesn’t Work: What Should Replace It and Why (USBIC, $24.95)  He is an Adjunct Fellow at the San Francisco office of the U.S. Business and Industry Council, a Washington think tank founded in 1933.  He was previously an economist in private practice, mostly serving hedge funds and private equity firms. He may be contacted at ian.fletcher@usbic.net.

© 2011 Copyright  Ian Fletcher - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

peter
23 Oct 11, 10:34
putting on a yuan usd spread

While technically possible to do I don't see how anyone would sell short gold/Yuan in Hong Kong and buy Gold/usd on the Comex. The two markets are never open at the same time. Being a spread trader myself it would be something I wouldn't do...to risky to have to wait until the next market opens to put on the other half of the spread. But that said, there are probably traders who will take the risk but I wouldn't be one of them. Your point is valid though and the Yuan denominated trading is going to continue to grow and pull interest away from the USD. And of course this is all bullish for gold!


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in