Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Obama's Job Numbers Don't Add Up

Politics / US Politics Sep 10, 2011 - 07:02 AM GMT

By: Barry_Elias

Politics

Nearly 32 months after taking the oath of office, President Obama implied his administration failed America during a speech to a joint session of Congress last night concerning jobs.

Despite his repeated claims as a candidate and president to focus on job growth as his number one priority, the president elected to wait until his next campaign to address this issue.


After taking the oath of office at his inauguration, the president essentially ignored the issue of job creation.

Consider his major agenda during that time frame:

1. Stimulus Program: American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA)
2. Healthcare: Healthcare and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010

Regarding the Stimulus Program:

The stated intent of this program was to create and/or save 3 million new jobs.

Fact: employment fell by nearly 7 million jobs through the end of 2010.

In January 2009, Christina Romer (Chairperson, Council of Economic Advisors to President Obama) and Jared Bernstein (Chief Economist and Economic Policy Advisor, Vice-President Joseph Biden) co-authored the $800 billion stimulus program (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009).

Proponents of the administration currently claim unemployment would be much higher today if the stimulus program was not enacted.

However, this statement contradicts the premise upon which the stimulus program was presented.

In 2009, the administration claimed by now unemployment would rise to 8.1 percent if the stimulus program was not enacted.

However, after enacting the stimulus program two-and-a-half years ago, unemployment is actually higher — today it is 9.1 percent.according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The administration projected this figure would be 6.8 percent (20 percent less) if the stimulus program was enacted.

Prior to her departure in June 2010, Christina Romer testified before the United States Congress Joint Economic Committee. At that time she proclaimed the stimulus program would contribute little growth by the end of 2010 and unemployment would remain near 9.6 percent through 2010.

This statement undermines the stated policy objective as well.

The policy analysis and recommendation provided by Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein contained a crucial error in the assumption of an economic multiplier. They believed every $1of government expenditures would generate $1.55 of total economic income (a multiplier of 1.55). Analysis provided by Dr. John Taylor of Stanford University suggests this multiplier may be 80 percent less, or close to 0.3.

Recently, the president stated in jovial fashion that the “shovel ready” projects contained within the stimulus program may not have been as “shovel ready” as he would have liked. This statement suggests disingenuous undertones.

The priorities demonstrated by the president signal an economic, social, and political proclivity, which is anathema to meritocracy, equal opportunity, and productivity. His vision lacks an adequate focus and strategic plan to realize his stated objectives. Moreover, his credibility concerning prudent economic policy has been seriously eroded.

My sense: the probability of a 2012 victory for the president has been strongly diminished.

Read more: Obama's Job Numbers Don't Add Up

By Barry Elias

eliasbarry@aol.com, beb1b2b3@gmail.com

Barry Elias provides economic analysis to Dick Morris, a former political adviser to President Clinton.

He was cited and acknowledged in two recent best-sellers co-authored by Mr. Morris: “Catastrophe” and “2010: Take Back America - a Battle Plan.” Mr. Elias graduated Phi Beta Kappa from Binghamton University with a degree in economics.

He has consulted with various high-profile financial institutions in New York City.

© 2011 Copyright Barry Elias - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in