Best Financial Markets Analysis Article Yesterday morning I had a conversation with a brilliant reader of mine. We spoke about precious metals, the blatant manipulation of the metals (which I am happy to report the Central banks have been unable to sustain) and to point out two stocks that I had not given their fair due.

In fairness, I first learned about the GDX from a fine young analyst but truthfully I could not get my hands around it. If I don’t believe in the fundamentals of the company you can show me charts all day long, I will not buy into the trade until I am convinced that this can be a profitable trade. There have been times that cost me dearly but I simply have my style or system and I don’t stray from it. Part of my style is that when I am wrong I promptly admit it.

Well Mea Culpa! I was wrong. The GDX has seemingly proved me to be wrong. I had espoused my view that this was not anything more than human reaction to gold and silver. I believed that investors would rather own gold and silver above the ground rather than real wealth under the ground.

I have always tried not to be stubborn and not be arrogant. Sadly this stock was recommended to me at $52.00 and I watched it flounder for months and was convinced that I was right in my original premise. What I didn’t see coming was that at some point investors would realize that the cost to bring gold and silver out of the ground were at unbelievably cheap valuations. Oil is cheap and labor is cheap and this only adds to a company’s profit margins. Sooner or later I too would recognize that these stocks were selling at amazingly discounted prices. So rather than bemoan the fact that I came to the party late I choose to embrace the fact that I came at all.

For the last few days I have been studying the GDX (which broke into all time highs yesterday) and the junior gold miners ETF (GDXJ). On any pull backs I'm going to be a buyer and here's why. I know who's who in the GDX. They are the best of the breed mining companies like Barrick (ABX), Goldcorp (GG), Newmont Mining (NEM), Kinross (KGC), Anglo Ashanti (AU) just to name a few. While I am conversant in these companies, I have no inside knowledge of when one of these companies will make an acquisition so I think while I do own Barrick and Goldcorp. I feel it would be the most prudent to scale out of them on strength and buy the GDX.

elow is a chart that my reader sent me that overlays the price of gold, the gold miners and The GDX. A study of this chart courtesy of AgoraFinancial.com shows that in the last two weeks the GDX is up 6%, gold is up 4% and the S&P is down 6%.

That leaves me wanting the GDXJ. When one of the majors makes an acquisition it will be from the pool of the GDXJ. There are too many companies in the GDXJ and as Bernard Baruch taught us you only have to be right 2 out of 10 times with small companies like the GDXJ to be successful. There is no doubt that there will be majors trying to make acquisitions. Which ones do we buy? The answer of course is to buy them all - Buy the GDXJ. Please see the chart of the GDXJ below.

Today the GDXJ was up 3% to close at the line of resistance at $39.18. This stock is poised to breakout to the upside. With the demise of the Swiss Franc gold rose $54.00 to close at $1872. These cash rich major mining companies will be looking to add to their staple gold and silver rich properties and when they choose a company the place they will be looking will be in the GDXJ. The GDXJ is above the 200 day moving average, it is just at the point of breaking resistance and when it does I see nothing but upside potential for the trade.

I am long GLD, PHYS, IGL, IAU, SLV, PSLV and AGQ.

By George Maniere

http://investingadvicebygeorge.blogspot.com/

In 2004, after retiring from a very successful building career, I became determined to learn all I could about the stock market. In 2009, I knew the market was seriously oversold and committed a serious amount of capital to the market. Needless to say things went quite nicely but I always remebered 2 important things. Hubris equals failure and the market can remain illogical longer than you can remain solvent. Please post all comments and questions. Please feel free to email me at maniereg@gmail.com. I will respond.

© 2011 Copyright George Maniere - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site.
(c) 2005-2024 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use. From time to time we promote or endorse certain products / services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention. In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.