Initial jobless claims fell 1,000 to 400,000 for the week ended July 30. Continuing claims, which lag initial claims by one week, fell 10,000 to 3.73 million. Initial jobless claims have ranged between 412,000 and 428,000 for three straight months. The main message is that firms are not hiring at a robust clip.

The July employment report is scheduled for publication on August 5. Payroll employment rose 18,000 in June after a small gain of 25,000 in May. Jobless claims data indicate a small drop in initial jobless between survey periods of June and July (429,000 in June vs. 422,000 in July). Payrolls are predicted to have risen 75,000 during July. The market consensus is an increase of 85,000 jobs and an unchanged unemployment rate of 9.2%.

Asha Bangalore — Senior Vice President and Economist

http://www.northerntrust.com

Asha Bangalore is Vice President and Economist at The Northern Trust Company, Chicago. Prior to joining the bank in 1994, she was Consultant to savings and loan institutions and commercial banks at Financial & Economic Strategies Corporation, Chicago.

The opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of The Northern Trust Company. The Northern Trust Company does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions.

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