Gold Worship and Donuts
Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011 Jul 31, 2011 - 03:06 AM GMTBy: Ned_W_Schmidt
This week markets have taken two prices to new highs: donuts and Gold. One is eaten. Other is now worshiped. Which should be our choice for today? At today's prices, donuts may be better choice.
For those wondering why donuts came to mind, Dunkin' Brands stock(US: DNKN) came to the market this week. First day pop was almost 50%. At the same time, $Gold was pushed to a record high. At that same time as anticipating the U.S. government defaulting, investors are buying donuts?
On this topic we note that the world champion donut eater is Canada. No nation consumes more donuts per capita, or has more donut shops per person. With Summer only a three-day weekend, donut shops are certainly more practical than swimming pools. They also own a lot of Gold.
Question that investor must address today is whether or not to convert $Gold, at more than $1.600, to donuts, or to continue worshiping the grand metal. Note what is excluded from this set of choices. Buying Gold at this price is a bet that the U.S. government will default on its debt, and the U.S. dollar will plunge in value. Both of those expectations may simply be another example of the madness of crowds.
In the panic induced discussion of the U.S. debt situation what is being ignored is the very positive development that it represents. The Obama regime, and its minions in Congress, lost the last election, big time. When one loses an election, one does not dictate policy. Rather, one accepts the terms offered. U.S. House of Representatives is in the process of changing policy, altering the trajectory of U.S. government spending. This development is an incredibly positive event. One that should be applauded, unless one is eating at the public trough or receiving money in exchange for votes.
Pundits, many of whom previously recommended investing in internet stocks and mortgages, are telling us with near certainty that the U.S. government will default on its debt and the dollar will collapse. Suspect that a week from now those ideas will be gathering dust. Alternative scenarios do exist. As a consequence of this madness of crowds, those that ignored Gold a thousand dollars lower are scrambling to buy Gold, without regard for the price. Buying hurricane insurance when the flag is flying means dramatically over paying for that insurance.
This week $Gold touched about 6.4 times the last major low. That level of valuation is equivalent of a yellow card in each of the referee's hands. Any price action above that level should give investors reason to know where the exit doors might be. The time to use those doors has probably not arrived, given the dysfunctional government still in power in the U.S. But, every investor should know the location of their personal door.
We bring no charts to you this week. At current price levels, and with a near mob mentality on the U.S. debt situation, no charts are needed. No technical analysis, good, bad, or mythical, is likely necessary. After twenty years of success for Gold and failure for Keynesianism, t he verdict has been delivered: Gold 1 Keynesianism 0
Investors should be considering several possible actions. $Silver is over priced, and has experienced a bear market rally of ~20%. It is clearly demonstrating that it is not a store of value in times of uncertainty. At today's price, Silver is again a strong sale. Alternatives for those proceeds to consider are Rhodium and Chinese Renminbi deposit accounts.
Be careful next week, running with the mob puts one at risk of being gored!
By Ned W Schmidt CFA, CEBS
Copyright © 2011 Ned W. Schmidt - All Rights Reserved
GOLD THOUGHTS come from Ned W. Schmidt,CFA,CEBS, publisher of The Value View Gold Report , monthly, and Trading Thoughts , weekly. To receive copies of recent reports, go to www.valueviewgoldreport.com
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