Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stocks Bull Market End Game Bear Start Strategy - 20th Mar 25
Gold and System Collapse: Charting the Bank Run of the Mighty US Dollar - 20th Mar 25
Tesla's Troubles — Is it Musk or is it More? - 20th Mar 25
The Stock Market Bear / Crash indicator Window - 9th Mar 25
Big US Tech Stocks Fundamentals - 9th Mar 25
No Winners When The Inflation Balloon Pops - 9th Mar 25
Stocks, Crypto and Housing Market Waiting for Trump to Shut His Mouth! - 27th Feb 25
PepeCoin (PEPE): Anticipating Crypto Reversals using Elliott Waves - 27th Feb 25
Audit the Fed, Audit Fort Knox, Audit Everything - 27th Feb 25
There Are Some Bullish Indicators in the Silver Market - 27th Feb 25
These Metrics Identify Only 10 AI Related Stocks That Are Undervalued - 27th Feb 25
Stocks, Bitcoin, Gold and Silver Markets Brief - 18th Feb 25
Harnessing Market Insights to Drive Financial Success - 18th Feb 25
Stock Market Bubble 2025 - 11th Feb 25
Fed Interest Rate Cut Probability - 11th Feb 25
Global Liquidity Prepares to Fire Bull Market Booster Rockets - 11th Feb 25
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: A Long-Term Bear Market Is Simply Impossible Today - 11th Feb 25
A Stock Market Chart That’s Out of This World - 11th Feb 25
These Are The Banks The Fed Believes Will Fail - 11th Feb 25
S&P 500: Dangerous Fragility Near Record High - 11th Feb 25
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Get High on Donald Trump Pump - 10th Feb 25
Bitcoin Break Out, MSTR Rocket to the Moon! AI Tech Stocks Earnings Season - 10th Feb 25
Liquidity and Inflation - 10th Feb 25
Gold Stocks Valuation Anomaly - 10th Feb 25

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Volatility Skew Still Shows Complacency

Stock-Markets / Volatility Jun 29, 2011 - 05:33 AM GMT

By: Tony_Pallotta

Stock-Markets I continue to "obsess" about the volatility skew. For those new to the skew and what is means please read here first. After the May 2010 correction the skew and vix both converged and continued to correlate for the most part through August 2010. Since that time they have diverged as some investors began buying further out of the money options versus the masses who continue to sell volatility whether as a form of speculation (selling puts) or simply ignoring the need for portfolio insurance.


The divergence grew to an extreme in February 2011 which preceded the market correction and then markets moved higher yet unlike 2010 the skew and vix did not correlate but instead diverged again. When the current selloff began the skew would come down as the vix would rise yet each move lower in the skew is followed by a sharp move higher (first chart below).

This brings me to the second chart showing the skew and vix divergence versus the SPX. The correlation is unquestionable even in the presence of QE where other correlations have broken. What intrigues me now is the trend in the divergence how it continues to trend lower although from elevated levels. Until the trend reverses it appears the skew will continue to move higher each day the market bounces. In other words as the vix remains elevated and possibly breaking out, the skew continues to confirm the level of complacency still within the equity markets.

By Tony Pallotta

http://macrostory.com/

Bio: A Boston native, I now live in Denver, Colorado with my wife and two little girls. I trade for a living and primarily focus on options. I love selling theta and vega and taking the other side of a trade. I have a solid technical analysis background but much prefer the macro trade. Being able to combine both skills and an understanding of my "emotional capital" has helped me in my career.

© 2011 Copyright  Tony Pallotta - Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in