Let's have a look at the bond market from the perspective of 10-year yield, which apart from signs that "the world is falling apart economically," nonetheless, is warning me that longer-term interest rates in the U.S. are vulnerable to a surprise on the upside.

My near- and intermediate-term work on 10-year yield continues to warn me that despite deteriorating economic fundamentals, longer-term yield is at or very near the completion of a significant correction and upside continuation of its Oct 2010 to Feb 2011 bull phase.

That said, yield needs to claw its way above 3.06% to trigger upside traction, critical for holders of the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT).

By Mike Paulenoff

Mike Paulenoff is author of MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com), a real-time diary of his technical analysis and trading alerts on ETFs covering metals, energy, equity indices, currencies, Treasuries, and specific industries and international regions.

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