Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Inflationary Reality Always Comes After “Recovery”

Economics / Inflation May 11, 2011 - 05:22 AM GMT

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

Economics

Inflation watchers should be witnessing already the reality of the inflationary cycle; companies are cutting down their product sizes, cutting corners on packaging, and most importantly, raising prices.  A few household names like Nike, McDonalds, and Walmart have indicated that it is inflation that is driving up their costs of doing business, and now they’re looking for ways to pass on the costs.


During the deep recession, or depression, of 2009, consider the available deals that came your way.  Restaurants were now offering a free appetizer, just for buying a dinner.  Every advertisement featured a product and a price because we were, once again, tethered to our wallets. 

The price level has generally lagged the true rate of monetary inflation by two to three years, depending on the product and its utility to the end consumer.  This phenomenon, as you can imagine, is mostly a product of marketing.  When prices are pushed higher by monetary inflation during a recession, companies try their best to burden the cost themselves.  No company wants to be seen as one to raise prices, so it is a natural fit that they instead burden the cost themselves to remain competitive.

Powerful Cycle

Shielding the cost of the raw goods from the consumer means that the general price level does not adequately reveal the extent to which the money supply has been inflated.  In fact, it often means that the central bankers, who have yet realized the danger of their inflationary game, stimulate to boost prices in the short-term, never mind that it will be the long-term inflation that ultimately breaks the consumer.

The fact of the matter is very simple; restaurants, clothing companies, and any other industry with exposure to raw commodities will soon pass on its higher costs to the consumer.  In doing so, a full two years of monetary inflation will be borne by the consumer in a matter of weeks, as prices adjust with new inventories.

In looking back through history, we can draw some unique parallels to the stagflation of the 1970s.  As prices trended higher, consumers purchased goods earlier and earlier.  So what happens when the underlying game theory comes to the surface—when buyers start buying now just so they don’t have to pay next month’s prices?

Inflation

 Inflation is measured in two ways: monetary inflation and price level inflation.  The price level, to economists and spenders alike, is the most important.  To those who want a dose of reality, monetary inflation provides a guideline for where price level inflation will be when the delay is over and the boom in money supply meets a bust in corporate profits.

In going forward, expect a higher than average rate of inflation, which is conducive to 2-3 years’ worth of lower than average inflation.  The consumer is still price-sensitive and will not respond to higher prices today as they have in the past.

We’re entering dangerous territory for the US economy in that inflation is here—or it will be soon—and the US economy isn’t prepared.  Remember again that the last stagflationary cycle was cured with double digit Federal Funds rates.  That can’t happen again.

By Dr. Jeff Lewis

    Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, in addition to running a busy medical practice, is the editor of Silver-Coin-Investor.com and Hard-Money-Newsletter-Review.com

    Copyright © 2011 Dr. Jeff Lewis- All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in