About six months ago we posted a projection for the remainder of the bull market using OEW analysis and the current bull market characteristics. At the time of the projection the SPX had closed at 1149 that friday September 24th: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/....

We anticipated, at the time, the current uptrend from July10 and SPX 1011 would last six months until Jan11 and reach SPX 1313. Then the following downtrend would take one month to unfold and decline 9%.

The uptrend outperformed our expectations. That uptrend lasted seven months until Feb11 and reached SPX 1344. It extended into the longest uptrend of the bull market, and oddly enough, ended in between two OEW pivots: 1313 and 1363. The downtrend that followed did take one month to Mar11, but the correction was only 7%. Again better than expected. As a result of the the recent market action we are updating our projection going forward: project, monitor and adjust:

SPX 1440/62 Jun11 Major wave 3, SPX 1363 Jly11 Major wave 4

SPX 1552/56 Oct11 Major wave 5, SPX 1363 Dec11 Primary wave IV

SPX 1576 Feb12 Primary wave V.

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987

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After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record.

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Copyright © 2011 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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