Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
US Bond Market Yield Curve Patterns – What To Expect In 2020 - 25th Feb 20
Has Stock Market Waterfall Event Started Or A Buying Opportunity? - 25th Feb 20
Coronavirus IN Sheffield! Royal Hallamshire Hospital treating 2 infected Patients, UK - 25th Feb 20
Dow Short-term Trend Analysis - Coronavirus Trigger a Stocks Bear Market? - 24th Feb 20
Sustained Silver Rally Coming? - 24th Feb 20
Should Investors Worry about Repo Market and Buy Gold? - 24th Feb 20
Are FANG Technology Stocks Setting Up For A Market Crash? - 24th Feb 20
Gold Above $1,600 Amid FOMC Minutes and Coronavirus Impact - 24th Feb 20
CoronaVirus Pandemic Day 76 Trend Forecast Update - Infected 540k, Minus China 1715, Deaths 4920 - 23rd Feb 20 -
Ways to Find Startup Capital - 23rd Feb 20
Stock Market Deviation from Overall Outlook for 2020 - 22nd Feb 20
The Shanghai Composite and Coronavirus: A Revealing Perspective - 22nd Feb 20
Baltic Dry, Copper, Oil, Tech and China Continue Call for Stock Market Crash Soon - 22nd Feb 20
Gold Warning – This is Not a Buying Opportunity - 22nd Feb 20
Is The Technology Sector FANG Stocks Setting Up For A Market Crash? - 22nd Feb 20
Coronavirus China Infection Statistics Analysis, Probability Forecasts 1/2 Million Infected - 21st Feb 20
Is Crude Oil Firmly on the Upswing Now? - 20th Feb 20
What Can Stop the Stocks Bull – Or At Least, Make It Pause? - 20th Feb 20
Trump and Economic News That Drive Gold, Not Just Coronavirus - 20th Feb 20
Coronavirus COVID19 UK Infection Prevention, Boosting Immune Systems, Birmingham, Sheffield - 20th Feb 20
Silver’s Valuable Insights Into the Upcoming PMs Rally - 20th Feb 20
Coronavirus Coming Storm Act Now to Protect Yourselves and Family to Survive COVID-19 Pandemic - 19th Feb 20
Future Silver Prices Will Shock People, and They’ll Kick Themselves for Not Buying Under $20… - 19th Feb 20
What Alexis Kennedy Learned from Launching Cultist Simulator - 19th Feb 20
Stock Market Potential Short-term top - 18th Feb 20
Coronavirus Fourth Turning - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! - 18th Feb 20
The Stocks Hit Worst From the Coronavirus - 18th Feb 20
Tips on Pest Control: How to Prevent Pests and Rodents - 18th Feb 20
Buying a Custom Built Gaming PC From Overclockers.co.uk - 1. Delivery and Unboxing - 17th Feb 20
BAIDU (BIDU) Illustrates Why You Should NOT Invest in Chinese Stocks - 17th Feb 20
Financial Markets News Report: February 17, 2020 - February 21, 2020 - 17th Feb 20
NVIDIA (NVDA) GPU King For AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 17th Feb 20
Stock Market Bubble - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! - 17th Feb 20
British Pound GBP Trend Forecast 2020 - 16th Feb 20
SAMSUNG AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 16th Feb 20
Ignore the Polls, the Markets Have Already Told You Who Wins in 2020 - 16th Feb 20
UK Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic WARNING! Sheffield, Manchester, Birmingham Outbreaks Probable - 16th Feb 20
iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF IBB AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 15th Feb 20
Gold Stocks Still Stalled - 15th Feb 20
Is The Technology Stocks Sector Setting Up For A Crash? - 15th Feb 20
UK Calm Before Corona Virus Storm - Infections Forecast into End March 2020 - 15th Feb 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Indian Stock Market Particularly Uncorrelated

Stock-Markets / India Mar 30, 2011 - 06:45 AM GMT

By: Submissions

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJan Kaska writes: Living in the correlated world, we were particularly struck when we saw a correlation chart between India and MSCI World turning deeply negative for the first time since 1996. While S&P is up 4% since the start of the year, Sensex has dived into deep red -8% territory.


To be honest, market timing is a painful exercise which we get rarely right. But we believe there is a growing probability of Sensex to stop underperforming and we would definitely start tipping our toes into long Indian equities, should it be Sensex itself or Indian small caps (ETF:SCIF).

Without doubt, the main reason for India to underperform was high inflation in the first place. The transmission channels how high inflation feeds into equities underperformance are numerous. First, high inflation propels wage hikes and makes exporters uncompetitive. Second, high inflation irritates central bankers who in turn have to tighten monetary policy. Higher interest rates and less money in the economy will cause revenues slow down. Third, companies may not have enough pricing power to carry higher input costs into prices of finished products. There are other channels such as less money (read less oil in the economy gear seat) will expose all the frauds and badly managed companies relying on cheap interest. We had such an example in Indian microfinance companies or Reliance conglomerate.

Today, Indian inflation measured as CPI dropped from 16% y/y to about 9% y/y. We all know that due to Balassa-Samuelson effect, low income nations tend to experience higher inflation. But is 9% high or low? And where is the inflation heading?

From the Chart 2, we can see that Indian inflation depicted in red dot is a notch or two too high and equilibrium inflation would stand around 5-6%. As we wrote in earlier publications, the main reason for high Indian inflation is the quantity and quality of infrastructure. But the central bank cannot let inflation run loose otherwise it would lose credibility. And we think the recent tightening in India and across Asia will be sufficient to bring inflation down in the second half of year. As you can see, slope of Indian yield curve is close to reverting, real 1Y rates are getting slowly to positive territory and M1 growth is decelerating. All this points to lower inflation across rest of 2011 (see Chart 3).

As the inflation may get exhausted and there will be little need for 10Y bonds to rise, Indian stock market are starting to flash green buy signal on us. See the Sensex Fed model which is based on difference between earnings yield and 10Y bond yields. You can easily speculate on India via ETF:PIN or SCIF.


By Jan Kaska

http://www.atwel.com/cz/

Analyst with ATWEL International Hedge fund

© 2011 Copyright  Jan Kaska, - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules