Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Bulls Hold Strong.....

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011 Mar 26, 2011 - 02:42 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets

A tough group these bulls. They don't like to give things too easily. Just when it looked like things would fall apart as they lost those 50-day exponential moving averages, they fought back strong and took those levels back in no time at all. The Nasdaq in particular gave up that critical 50-day at 2712 with relative ease. No real fight as those high beta froth stocks were taken down in a big way. No mercy on some of those stocks as they took 20% hits. Others were hit quite a bit more than that off their most recent highs. Not pretty as many stayed oversold and refused to bounce as their prices seemingly went lower.


Google Inc. (GOOG) and F5 Networks, Inc. (FFIV) stand out as two that wouldn't get bids at 30 RSI on their daily charts. They went down to the low or mid 20's before moving back up some. People were buying the moment they got oversold, but they gave no satisfaction as their bad earnings reports took over and wouldn't allow for upside action. However, the market happily is not just a few stocks, and thus, it was able to overcome the bad action seen in many places and do what it has done for a long time now and that is to rotate the dollars around enough to keep the market afloat. That's been the most important aspect of this, and really, any bull market. A few stocks that lead, and then stop leading for a while, don't necessarily kill the entire market. Big money finds a way to take the market higher through rotation.

As one sector dies another gets too oversold and the buying begins all over again. In a bear market, or a market rotating out of a bull into a bear, it would not find rotation. It would simply stop finding a new place to run to. The money would leave the market for good, and things would begin their process of eroding away. For now, we can say the bulls have found a way to keep the bears away from starting a new bear market. I always have my eyes open to all possibilities, so I won't say that can't happen. But for the moment there is no strong evidence that the bulls are losing their grip on things.

To show what type of market we're in, you need look no further than the chart of Research In Motion Ltd. (RIMM) and what took place after their earnings report Thursday night. The stock was absolutely annihilated on a bad report. They told the world margins were eroding as were many other aspects of their business. The stock got slammed, but the rest of the market did not. That's beautiful behavior for any market that's in a bullish phase. The market will punish a particular stock for missing their earnings numbers, but they won't attack anything else necessarily related to that stock. They let everyone else function on their own worth. If you report well, or have reported well prior, then you will be given grace until it's your turn. In bear markets the whole sector will be taken down if a stock reports badly. These are the little subtle hints about where we are at the moment. It doesn't mean it'll be this way a week or two from now, but it is that way for the moment, so we need to respect the message that is flashing today.

One sector that once again can't really get going the way the rest of the market has is those pesky financial stocks. They aren't terrible but the best way for me to describe them is that they're getting "dragged" up, almost by force, because the rest of the market is hanging in there so well. It would be really nice from two perspectives if they got a bid. Number one, it would be strong technically for the rest of the market. Secondly, it would tell us that fundamentally things are improving. We still have not seen strength bigger picture for many years from this sector and may not do so for years to come.

Later in the day we finally saw some selling. The short-term 60-minute charts got extremely overbought with stochastic's in the mid to upper 90's, and those all important RSI's in the mid to upper 70's. That's a combination that guarantee's some necessary selling in order to unwind from very overbought levels. We saw that take place late, and there's nothing wrong with that. We're already somewhat below 70 on those RSI's already. In addition, the Nasdaq and PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) printed Doji's off the up trend, but the Dow and S&P 500 did not. It would be no shock if the market sold some early next week. That wouldn't be bad since it would simply unwind those oscillators a little further. Since the daily charts are nowhere near overbought, it shouldn't take too much more unwinding to get this market heading back north.

But again, don't be shocked by some deeper selling early on next week. 2712 is now strong support for the Nasdaq, and that's about 1-2% away. Nothing too bad. If we can get through the gap at 2760, the next resistance is at 2808, or yet another gap. The one headache we'll have to deal with possibly down the road technically is that the MACD's on all the index charts will form daily negative divergences if we get to equal, or new, highs as will the weekly charts. There will be a price to pay off of that, but we'll worry about that when the time comes, if the time comes at all. For now, we stay with the trend and keep some exposure to the long side.

Do something nice for someone this weekend. Spend time with a child if at all possible.

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

Sign up for a Free 21-Day Trial to SwingTradeOnline.com!

© 2011 SwingTradeOnline.com

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

chistian
26 Mar 11, 13:22
QE

apparently you haven't seen the chart with the SPX and the Fed's balance sheet and the correlation.

fed and primary dealers have the market cornered...in the absense of a few day period of a natual disaster....or a huge NEW fire in the euro debt house.

Bulls will hold strong thru june and then since QE 3 is a national security issue they should hold strong thru that...at least until the bond markets can't keep tap dancing to low yields


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in