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Manpower Survey Bullish, But Stock Market Correction Threat Remains

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011 Mar 08, 2011 - 12:41 PM GMT

By: Chris_Ciovacco

Stock-Markets

We have some good news on the hiring front this morning, which aligns with our longer-term bullish outlook. However, we remain concerned short-term, and will be patient in terms of redeploying the cash we have raised in recent weeks. According to Bloomberg:

More U.S. employers said they plan to boost payrolls in the second quarter, and fewer expect to reduce headcounts, a private survey found. Manpower Inc. (MAN), the world’s second-largest provider of temporary workers, said today that 16 percent plan to add workers in the April-June period, up from 14 percent in the first quarter. The share of those projecting workforce reductions fell to 6 percent from 10 percent.


The Manpower survey and the improving labor market support our strategy to maintain our current positions in energy (XLE), commodities (DBC), and precious metals (SLV, GLD). The cash we have raised recently can help us offset some of the short-term risks associated with pro-growth/inflation-friendly assets.

The CCM Bull Market Sustainability Index (BMSI) has popped back up into the low-end of an unfavorable risk-reward zone, which means we will continue to err on the defensive side until conditions improve (see table below).

Little has changed relative to the table we presented March 7 titled “Patience is a virtue”, which again supports a “wait and see” approach with cash. The updated table below shows some improvement over Monday morning’s version, but still with a decidedly concerning slant.

From a longer-term strategy perspective, we are working on some research related to the possible impact of the looming QE2 completion date of June 30, 2011. We will present our findings and possible investment scenarios in the next day or so.

By Chris Ciovacco
Ciovacco Capital Management

    Copyright (C) 2011 Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC All Rights Reserved.

    Chris Ciovacco is the Chief Investment Officer for Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC. More on the web at www.ciovaccocapital.com

    Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC is an independent money management firm based in Atlanta, Georgia. As a registered investment advisor, CCM helps individual investors, large & small; achieve improved investment results via independent research and globally diversified investment portfolios. Since we are a fee-based firm, our only objective is to help you protect and grow your assets. Our long-term, theme-oriented, buy-and-hold approach allows for portfolio rebalancing from time to time to adjust to new opportunities or changing market conditions. When looking at money managers in Atlanta, take a hard look at CCM.

    All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Investment recommendations may change and readers are urged to check with their investment counselors and tax advisors before making any investment decisions. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. This memorandum is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This memorandum is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The price or value of the investments to which this report relates, either directly or indirectly, may fall or rise against the interest of investors. All prices and yields contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This information is based on hypothetical assumptions and is intended for illustrative purposes only. THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS ARTICLE. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS.

    Chris Ciovacco Archive

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