Technicals of Silver and Silver Miner ETFs

By: Piazzi

Silver has been a clear leader in the PM area.

This is a current count of Silver ETF SLV

We had correctly anticipated the top of the Minor (dark blue) wave 3. We also correctly anticipated the drop area of Minor wave 4.

Now, SLV has made a new high, which, if the above count is correct is part of an ongoing Minor wave 5.

The purpose of a wave 5 is to make a new high, and SLV has achieved that.

How far this Minor wave 5 might go?

Well. SLV has had a breakout north of 30.50 and as long as that breakout stays intact, every move is part of either an advance or a consolidation.

There is a Fibonacci cluster in the 32.50-34.50 range which may offer some resistance.

SLV has been outperforming both GLD and S&P 500

To the downside, I would like the ETF to use 30 area as support for any possible setbacks. I would also like it to stay in the upper half of my adaptive channel
I think that in a good metal environment, miners should ideally outperform the metal. But such ahs been the force behind silver (it smells of short squeeze) that silver miners have been lagging

Silver miner ETF, SIL has been doing alright outperforming both GLD and S&P 500. It just hasn’t been a match for the performance of silver.

SIL has also has very nice expansion of breadth for the current rally

McClellan has expanded nicely and weighted buying pressure has been positive

Daily market alignment index (MAI) has expanded sharply indicating a positive overall daily posture for 46% of the SIL’s constituents.

Also, 57% of SIL’s constituents are now in confirmed Objective Elliott Wave (OEW) uptrends.

Overall, we can say that, so far, it’s been good. But it can and must be better. It must be better

I would like more expansion in daily MAI and % of stocks in OEW uptrends. A healthy composite, index, or ETF should have more 50% of its parts in uptrends. I would also like SLV and SIL hold immediate support (30 area for SLV and 24 area for SIL) on any pullbacks.

At Market Time Premium, I study the market and identify risk levels in multiple time frames. I approach and characterize the price behavior of the market from a larger time frame to smaller time frames. But, knowing that risk happens at the margin of smaller frames, I define potential change levels starting from smaller frames, and then examine the possibility of that change to propagate into larger time frames.

By Piazzi

http://markettime.blogspot.com/

http://markettime.wordpress.com/

I am a self taught market participant with more than 12 years of managing my own money. My main approach is to study macro level conditions affecting the markets, and then use technical analysis to either find opportunities or stay out of trouble. Staying out of trouble (a.k.a Loss) is more important to me than making profits. In addition to my self studies of the markets, I have studied Objective Elliott Wave (OEW) under tutorship of Tony Caldaro.

© 2011 Copyright Piazzi - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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