The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose 5.6 points to 70.4 in February, the highest reading in three years (see Chart 3). The Current Situation Index (33.4 vs.31.1 in January) and the Expectations Index (95.1 vs. 87.3 in January) both posted gains, with the latter climbing to the highest level since December 2006 (see Chart 4).

The number of respondents indicating "jobs are hard to get" rose 1.3 points to 45.7, while those responding "jobs are plentiful" rose slightly to 4.9 during February. The net of these two measures has a strong positive correlation with the civilian unemployment rate (see Chart 5). The net measure fell to 40.8 in February from 42.4 in the prior month, suggesting a likely drop of the jobless rate.

Asha Bangalore — Senior Vice President and Economist

http://www.northerntrust.com

Asha Bangalore is Vice President and Economist at The Northern Trust Company, Chicago. Prior to joining the bank in 1994, she was Consultant to savings and loan institutions and commercial banks at Financial & Economic Strategies Corporation, Chicago.

The opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of The Northern Trust Company. The Northern Trust Company does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions.

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