Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Saudi Arabia Eyes Total Dominance In Oil And Gas Markets - 7th Jul 20
These Are the Times That Call for Gold - 7th Jul 20
A Reason to be "Extra-Attentive" to Stock Market Sentiment Measures - 7th Jul 20
The Beatings Will Continue Until the Economy Improves - 6th Jul 20
The Corona Economic Depression Is Here - 6th Jul 20
Stock Market Short-term Peaking - 6th Jul 20
Gold’s Major Reversal to Create the “Handle” - 5th July 20
Gold Market Manipulation And The Federal Reserve - 5th July 20
Overclockers UK Custom Build PC Review - 1. Ordering / Stock Issues - 5th July 20
How to Bond With Your Budgie / Parakeet With Morning Song and Dance - 5th July 20
Silver Price Trend Forecast Summer 2020 - 3rd Jul 20
Silver Market Is at a Critical Juncture - 3rd Jul 20
Gold Stocks Breakout Not Confirmed Yet - 3rd Jul 20
Coronavirus Strikes Back. But Force Is Strong With Gold - 3rd Jul 20
Stock Market Russell 2000 Gaps Present Real Targets - 3rd Jul 20
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Big Pharma Stock for Machine Learning Life Extension Investing - 2nd Jul 20
All Eyes on Markets to Get a Refreshed Outlook - 2nd Jul 20
The Darkening Clouds on the Stock Market S&P 500 Horizon - 2nd Jul 20
US Fourth Turning Reaches Boiling Point as America Bends its Knee - 2nd Jul 20
After 2nd Quarter Economic Carnage, the Quest for Philippine Recovery - 2nd Jul 20
Gold Completes Another Washout Rotation – Here We Go - 2nd Jul 20
Roosevelt 2.0 and ‘here, hold my beer' - 2nd Jul 20
U.S. Dollar: When Almost Everyone Is Bearish... - 1st Jul 20
Politicians Prepare New Money Drops as US Dollar Weakens - 1st Jul 20
Gold Stocks Still Undervalued - 1st Jul 20
High Premiums in Physical Gold Market: Scam or Supply Crisis? - 1st Jul 20
US Stock Markets Enter Parabolic Price Move - 1st Jul 20
In The Year 2025 If Fiat Currency Can Survive - 30th Jun 20
Gold Likes the IMF Predicting a Deeper Recession - 30th Jun 20
Silver Is Still Cheap For Now - 30th Jun 20
More Stock Market Selling Ahead - 30th Jun 20
Trending Ecommerce Sites in 2020 - 30th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching the Precipice - 29th Jun 20
APPLE Tech Stock for Investing to Profit from the Machine Learning Mega trend - 29th Jun 20
Student / Gamer Custom System Build June 2020 Proving Impossible - Overclockers UK - 29th Jun 20
US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles - 29th Jun 20
Europe's Banking Sector: When (and Why) the Rout Really Began - 29th Jun 20
Will People Accept Rampant Inflation? Hell, No! - 29th Jun 20
Gold & Silver Begin The Move To New All-Time Highs - 29th Jun 20
US Stock Market Enters Parabolic Price Move – Be Prepared - 29th Jun 20
Meet BlackRock, the New Great Vampire Squid - 28th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching a Defining Moment - 28th Jun 20
U.S. Long Bond: Let's Review the "Upward Point of Exhaustion" - 27th Jun 20
Gold, Copper and Silver are Must-own Metals - 27th Jun 20
Why People Have Always Held Gold - 27th Jun 20
Crude Oil Price Meets Key Resistance - 27th Jun 20
INTEL x86 Chip Giant Stock Targets Artificial Intelligence and Quantum Computing for 2020's Growth - 25th Jun 20
Gold’s Long-term Turning Point is Here - 25th Jun 20
Hainan’s ASEAN Future and Dark Clouds Over Hong Kong - 25th Jun 20
Silver Price Trend Analysis - 24th Jun 20
A Stealth Stocks Double Dip or Bear Market Has Started - 24th Jun 20
Trillion-dollar US infrastructure plan will draw in plenty of metal - 24th Jun 20
WARNING: The U.S. Banking System ISN’T as Strong as Advertised - 24th Jun 20
All That Glitters When the World Jitters is Probably Gold - 24th Jun 20
Making Sense of Crude Oil Price Narrow Trading Range - 23rd Jun 20
Elon Musk Mocks Nikola Motors as “Dumb.” Is He Right? - 23rd Jun 20
MICROSOFT Transforming from PC Software to Cloud Services AI, Deep Learning Giant - 23rd Jun 20
Stock Market Decline Resumes - 22nd Jun 20
Excellent Silver Seasonal Buying Opportunity Lies Directly Ahead - 22nd Jun 20
Where is the US Dollar trend headed ? - 22nd Jun 20
Most Shoppers have Stopped Following Supermarket Arrows, is Coughing the New Racism? - 22nd Jun 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

AI Stocks 2020-2035 15 Year Trend Forecast

Gold Uptrend Lacks Enthusiasm

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011 Feb 20, 2011 - 07:19 AM GMT

By: Merv_Burak


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWell, it was up, up all week long for gold.  However, there seemed not to be any enthusiasm behind the move and trends do not last long without enthusiasm.  Maybe it will enter this coming week.


Over the past few weeks I had mentioned that my long term P&F chart gave a bear signal BUT that there was still one more support level on the chart that needed to be breached for that bear signal to have meaning.  Well, as we have seen, that support has held and we have been in a rally for the past three weeks.  The big question now is, is this only a rally or are we in for a new bull move?  I’m not very good at predicting the future.  It’s enough effort just to understand where we are right now least of all where we will be next week or month.  So, where are we right now?

From a long term perspective, although it does appear as if gold has been in a several month topping and turning mode it remains above its positive sloping moving average line.  The long term momentum indicator has been moving lower and lower since October but is in one of its upward turns.  It is still in its positive zone and now above its long term trigger line.  The trigger line has also turned upwards which is a very positive sign.  The volume indicator has been moving sideways since December and is very close to breaching into new high ground.  During this sideways period its trigger line has moved right up to the indicator and has flattened out but still is in a very, very slight up slope.  Everything is still looking okay for the long term.  The rating remains BULLISH.


 The intermediate term perspective is also okay.  Gold has crossed above its intermediate term moving average line during the week and the line itself has turned to the up side.  The intermediate term momentum indicator was in its negative zone for a few days but has once again crossed into its positive zone.  It is also above its positive sloping trigger line.  The volume indicator is slightly positive and above is positive trigger line.  All in all the intermediate term rating remains BULLISH.  This rating is confirmed by the short term moving average line crossing above the intermediate term line.

There are many, many technical indicators one can look at to assess where we are but these simple indicators tell us the trend, strength of the trend and interest by speculators in the trend.  What more do we need?  We wouldn’t be right all the time but I hope we are right most of the time.  More importantly, we should not be wrong for any length of time to cause major financial losses.  We do not blindly hold as the trend goes against us.  That is the sign of an amateur.



The short term has been great for the past few weeks but could be coming to an end.  We are inside an upward trending wedge pattern.  These patterns unfortunately are most likely to be broken on the down side.  The strongest move would come when the price is two thirds along its way towards its apex point.  As it continues closer and closer to the apex the strength of any break becomes less and less.  So, we are not yet at the strongest location should the price break below the lower support line.  That would still take a couple more weeks of steady up trend within the confines of the wedge.  From here, that does not look probable, so, we should get a break soon but not one that is of any great strength (or longevity).

For now the short term position of gold remains basically positive.  Gold has been above its short term moving average line for over two weeks and remains above.  Its moving average line remains sloping in an upward direction.  As for its short term momentum indicator, well that is comfortably in its positive zone and above its positive trigger line.  Only the daily volume action leaves a lot to be desired.  During its entire few weeks of price rally the daily volume has remained relatively low.  It had remained below its 15 day average value throughout the advance.  This does not bode well for longevity of the rally.  However, despite the poor volume showing the short term rating remains BULLISH with the very short term moving average line confirming by remaining above the short term line.

With events as volatile as they are in global politics I wouldn’t even try to guess the immediate direction for gold.  The direction of least resistance, however, seems to be getting closer and closer to the down side.  The Stochastic Oscillator remains in its overbought zone and can’t stay there for much longer.  The next turn to the down side by the SO should also see gold turn lower.



Silver continues to put in a great performance versus gold.  This past week gold advanced by 2.1% while silver advanced 7.7%, almost 4 times the weekly performance.  The chart shows that silver has entered new bull market highs and is heading towards its all time high in the low $40s way back in January of 1980.  Depending upon the chart one uses the all time high in silver was about $41.50.

A few weeks back silver gave a P&F bear signal, however, I had mentioned a support just below the break that needed to be breached before really going bearish.  That support held and silver quickly moved higher.  We need to go back to the P&F chart of 17 Dec 2010 where I still had projections to $32.50 and $34.00 that were not met at that time.  Well, the recent sharp rally has met the $32.50 projection.  Now, on to $34.00.  However, with the latest move a new projection can be calculated, to the $42.00 level, just $0.50 above silver’s all time high.  One thing all these projections seem to say is that there is still more upside potential for silver.

Without going into details, one can guess that the ratings for silver in all three time periods is BULLISH. 

For a cautionary note it is interesting that silver price is now butting up against the previous support up trend line, which can now be considered as a resistance line.  Couple this along with weakness in both the momentum and volume indicators and we have the prospect of a reaction very soon.  I would suspect that any reaction off that resistance line would not stop at the very narrow up trending channel lower support but break below it also.  Just something to be aware of.


All precious metal stock indices had a good week, some better than others.  The silver stocks were, of course, the better weekly performers as is noted by the Indices that have silver stocks as their major components.  Although the Indices had a good week ONLY the Merv’s Penny Arcade Index made it into new all time high territory.  Go pennies GO.  This is one of my best indicators that the major long term bull market in precious metal stocks is not yet over and still has more to go.  During the last bull market top when the major Indices (and gold and silver stocks) topped out in early 2008 this Penny Arcade Index topped out a year before the majors.  I don’t expect the same year’s notice but I do expect that the pennies will top out before the universe of precious metal stocks top out and therefore we should have this advance warning.

The Penny Arcade IS weakening as far as the momentum (strength) of the recent move is concerned.  Although the Index has made new highs the momentum indicator is still below its previous recent high.  This is not yet a serious concern as the indicator is very strong, above the 80% level so a slight weakness is not a big deal, but it is so far a weakness in the latest move.  Something to watch.

Merv’s Precious Metals Indices Table

It should be noted that the Index values for the FTSE Indices are for the period Thursday to Thursday.  For some reason my data vendor does not provide the most recent data for these Indices.  I would welcome suggestions for obtaining same day Indices values for the FTSE gold Indices.

Well, that’s it for this week.  Comments are always welcome and should be addressed to

By Merv Burak, CMT
Hudson Aero/Systems Inc.
Technical Information Group
for Merv's Precious Metals Central

For DAILY Uranium stock commentary and WEEKLY Uranium market update check out my new Technically Uranium with Merv blog at .

During the day Merv practices his engineering profession as a Consulting Aerospace Engineer. Once the sun goes down and night descends upon the earth Merv dons his other hat as a Chartered Market Technician ( CMT ) and tries to decipher what's going on in the securities markets. As an underground surveyor in the gold mines of Canada 's Northwest Territories in his youth, Merv has a soft spot for the gold industry and has developed several Gold Indices reflecting different aspects of the industry. As a basically lazy individual Merv's driving focus is to KEEP IT SIMPLE .

To find out more about Merv's various Gold Indices and component stocks, please visit . There you will find samples of the Indices and their component stocks plus other publications of interest to gold investors.

Before you invest, Always check your market timing with a Qualified Professional Market Technician

Merv Burak Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules