Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Revolutions When US Presidents Are Soft: Might Egypt Be Like Iran?

Politics / Middle East Feb 01, 2011 - 04:15 AM GMT

By: Andrew_Butter

Politics

There is a lot in common between the Iranian Revolution and the current almost revolution in Egypt that is being played out.

In both cases there was a huge popular uprising against a corrupt, brutal, venal and un-democratic government who relied heavily on police, secret police, and torture, to stay in power, headed up by self admiring despots.


And then, and this is the kicker, when the police were over-run and the army were called onto the streets to keep order, they didn’t start machine-gunning the population and running over them with tanks.

Some American Presidents tolerate that sort of thing, they say “tut-tut, but of course law and order must be maintained”. And the alternative is state-terrorism and threats down the road, to (US) National security, and of course, International Law, so sometimes leaders must be “tough”.

As if International Laws as in those feebly enforced by the International Criminal Court, or even the bits of the Geneva Convention they don’t like (as in the ones about protecting civilian populations and torture), have ever bothered “tough” American Presidents.

So the “tough-guys” say, “open up, we will turn a blind eye”. The idea there goes with the CIA maxim, “we know he’s a son of a female dog, but he is OUR son of a female dog”.

For years President Mubarak has been a very loyal son of a female dog insofar as American interests are concerned. And we can conveniently forget that the terrorist cell that spawned the 9/11 atrocity was born and bread in Egypt and all Osama did was provide financing; all the more reason of course to support the torture cells in Egypt that were “tough on terrorism”. Just as the torture cells in Iran under the Shah that were “tough on communism”, were tacitly supported.

Then you get a change of government in USA and then the game changes. President Carter was “soft”, he vacillated, he talked about “fair-and-free-elections” (now where have I heard that one recently), and that’s why the Shah hesitated on giving the order to shoot-to-kill.

That’s what’s happening in Egypt. There comes a point, when the army is embraced by the crowds, that it’s game-over.

There is another thing about Egypt which is similar to the situation in Iran, when the population rose out and threw out their (previously) American supported despot.

Then there was no clear political successor. Many people forget that in Iran the people on the streets were mainly, and certainly initially, “liberal-minded” (or in CIA parlance at the time “commies”).

 The banner of “Islam” was in many cases little more than shorthand; or a flag of convenience for students and young people. That revolution was not driven by the clerics, Khomeini wasn’t even interested in setting up a government, he was just anti-Shah and anti the persecution of Islam by the Shah, and the people on the streets were not “Islamist” any more than they all believed in Islam.

Not many people, particularly the Americans, realised that the hostage taking at the US Embassy was orchestrated by leftists, not the clerics. Sure the clerics exploited that, and the clerics that corrupted the revolution exploited it more, but in many ways it was a cry of help for USA to act to help promote democracy and good governance; that was ignored.

In Egypt there is no clear successor to Mubarak, that’s the problem with regimes which brutally stamp out any dissent.

All that’s left is Islam, which is the natural fall-back. Yet the experience of governments that have been dominated by the sacred laws of Islam (the Taliban and Iran), rather than governments that simply respect Islam and acknowledge its importance (UAE is a good example), is less than encouraging.

Let’s see if the American Government, which did more than anyone to help create the power-base for President Mubarak, will act a little smarter with revolution in Egypt, that they reacted to the revolution in Iran.

By Andrew Butter

Twenty years doing market analysis and valuations for investors in the Middle East, USA, and Europe; currently writing a book about BubbleOmics. Andrew Butter is managing partner of ABMC, an investment advisory firm, based in Dubai ( hbutter@eim.ae ), that he setup in 1999, and is has been involved advising on large scale real estate investments, mainly in Dubai.

© 2011 Copyright Andrew Butter- All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Andrew Butter Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in