Now I know this stuff doesn't matter until it does and I know all those trend followers out there who "just follow price" ignore this kind of thing, but the differential of NYSE new highs minus new lows has not only failed to keep pace with price but it is now breaking down.

Figure 1 is a daily chart of the S&P Depository Receipts (symbol: SPY). The indicator in the lower panel is the simple 5 day moving average of NYSE new highs minus NYSE new lows. Typically, this indicator tracks price swings fairly well and you can see that in figure 2 (below), where I have overlaid the indicator on the price chart. Two things are noteworthy regarding this indicator. First, it peaked on November 5, 2010 and it has failed to keep up with price since that time. This is the "dreaded" negative divergence, but of course, it won't mean anything until it does. Second, the indicator (as of yesterday) is now breaking down out of its range and this should mean lower prices.

Figure 1. SPY/ daily

Most measures of market health are not keeping pace with price. At the very least, these divergences should slow the market's rise. Whether the market will be "allowed" to correct is another question.

Figure 2. SPY/ daily

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By Guy Lerner

http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/

Guy M. Lerner, MD is the founder of ARL Advisers, LLC and managing partner of ARL Investment Partners, L.P. Dr. Lerner utilizes a research driven approach to determine those factors which lead to sustainable moves in the markets. He has developed many proprietary tools and trading models in his quest to outperform. Over the past four years, Lerner has shared his innovative approach with the readers of RealMoney.com and TheStreet.com as a featured columnist. He has been a regular guest on the Money Man Radio Show, DEX-TV, routinely published in the some of the most widely-read financial publications and has been a marquee speaker at financial seminars around the world.

© 2011 Copyright Guy Lerner - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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