Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Has the Fed Let the Inflation Genie Out of the Bottle? - 10th Aug 20
The Strange Food Trend That’s Making Investors Rich - 10th Aug 20
Supply & Demand For Money – The End of Inflation? - 10th Aug 20
Revisiting Our Silver and Gold Predictions – Get Ready For Higher Prices - 10th Aug 20
Storm Clouds Are Gathering for a Major Stock and Commodity Markets Downturn - 10th Aug 20
A 90-Year-Old Stock Market Investment Insight That's Relevant in 2020 - 10th Aug 20
Debt and Dollar Collapse Leading to Potential Stock Market Melt-Up, - 10th Aug 20
Coronavirus: UK Parents Demand ALL Schools OPEN September, 7 Million Children Abandoned by Teachers - 9th Aug 20
Computer GPU Fans Not Spinning Quick FIX - Sticky Fans Solution - 9th Aug 20
Find the Best Speech Converter for You - 9th Aug 20
Silver Bull Market Update - 7th Aug 20
This Inflation-Adjusted Silver Chart Tells An Interesting Story - 7th Aug 20
The Great American Housing Boom Has Begun - 7th Aug 20
NATURAL GAS BEGINS UPSIDE BREAKOUT MOVE - 7th Aug 20
Know About Lotteries With The Best Odds Of Winning - 7th Aug 20
Could Gold Price Reach $7,000 by 2030? - 6th Aug 20
Bananas for All! Keep Dancing… FOMC - 6th Aug 20
How to Do Bets During This Time - 6th Aug 20
How to develop your stock trading strategy - 6th Aug 20
Stock Investors What to do if Trump Bans TikTok - 5th Aug 20
Gold Trifecta of Key Signals for Gold Mining Stocks - 5th Aug 20
ARE YOU LOVING YOUR SERVITUDE? - 5th Aug 20
Stock Market Uptrend Continues? - 4th Aug 20
The Dimensions of Covid-19: The Hong Kong Flu Redux - 4th Aug 20
High Yield Junk Bonds Are Hot Again -- Despite Warning Signs - 4th Aug 20
Gold Stocks Autumn Rally - 4th Aug 20
“Government Sachs” Is Worried About the Federal Reserve Note - 4th Aug 20
Gold Miners Still Pushing That Cart of Rocks Up Hill - 4th Aug 20
UK Government to Cancel Christmas - Crazy Covid Eid 2020! - 4th Aug 20
Covid-19 Exposes NHS Institutional Racism Against Black and Asian Staff and Patients - 4th Aug 20
How Sony Is Fueling the Computer Vision Boom - 3rd Aug 20
Computer Gaming System Rig Top Tips For 6 Years Future Proofing Build Spec - 3rd Aug 20
Cornwwall Bude Caravan Park Holidays 2020 - Look Inside Holiday Resort Caravan - 3rd Aug 20
UK Caravan Park Holidays 2020 Review - Hoseasons Cayton Bay North East England - 3rd Aug 20
Best Travel Bags for 2020 Summer Holidays , Back Sling packs, water proof, money belt and tactical - 3rd Aug 20
Precious Metals Warn Of Increased Volatility Ahead - 2nd Aug 20
The Key USDX Sign for Gold and Silver - 2nd Aug 20
Corona Crisis Will Have Lasting Impact on Gold Market - 2nd Aug 20
Gold & Silver: Two Pictures - 1st Aug 20
The Bullish Case for Stocks Isn't Over Yet - 1st Aug 20
Is Gold Price Action Warning Of Imminent Monetary Collapse - Part 2? - 1st Aug 20
Will America Accept the World's Worst Pandemic Response Government - 1st Aug 20
Stock Market Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More – Part II - 1st Aug 20
Trump White House Accelerating Toward a US Dollar Crisis - 31st Jul 20
Why US Commercial Real Estate is Set to Get Slammed - 31st Jul 20
Gold Price Blows Through Upside Resistance - The Chase Is On - 31st Jul 20
Is Crude Oil Price Setting Up for a Waterfall Decline? - 31st Jul 20
Stock Market Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More - 30th Jul 20
Why Big Money Is Already Pouring Into Edge Computing Tech Stocks - 30th Jul 20
Economic and Geopolitical Worries Fuel Gold’s Rally - 30th Jul 20
How to Finance an Investment Property - 30th Jul 20
I Hate Banks - Including Goldman Sachs - 29th Jul 20
NASDAQ Stock Market Double Top & Price Channels Suggest Pending Price Correction - 29th Jul 20
Silver Price Surge Leaves Naysayers in the Dust - 29th Jul 20
UK Supermarket Covid-19 Shop - Few Masks, Lack of Social Distancing (Tesco) - 29th Jul 20
Budgie Clipped Wings, How Long Before it Can Fly Again? - 29th Jul 20
How To Take Advantage Of Tesla's 400% Stock Surge - 29th Jul 20
Gold Makes Record High and Targets $6,000 in New Bull Cycle - 28th Jul 20
Gold Strong Signal For A Secular Bull Market - 28th Jul 20
Anatomy of a Gold and Silver Precious Metals Bull Market - 28th Jul 20
Shopify Is Seizing an $80 Billion Pot of Gold - 28th Jul 20
Stock Market Minor Correction Underway - 28th Jul 20
Why College Is Never Coming Back - 27th Jul 20
Stocks Disconnect from Economy, Gold Responds - 27th Jul 20
Silver Begins Big Upside Rally Attempt - 27th Jul 20
The Gold and Silver Markets Have Changed… What About You? - 27th Jul 20
Google, Apple And Amazon Are Leading A $30 Trillion Assault On Wall Street - 27th Jul 20
This Stock Market Indicator Reaches "Lowest Level in Nearly 20 Years" - 26th Jul 20
New Wave of Economic Stimulus Lifts Gold Price - 26th Jul 20
Stock Market Slow Grind Higher Above the Early June Stock Highs - 26th Jul 20
How High Will Silver Go? - 25th Jul 20
If You Own Gold, Look Out Below - 25th Jul 20
Crude Oil and Energy Sets Up Near Major Resistance – Breakdown Pending - 25th Jul 20
FREE Access to Premium Market Forecasts by Elliott Wave International - 25th Jul 20
The Promise of Silver as August Approaches: Accumulation and Conversation - 25th Jul 20
The Silver Bull Gateway is at Hand - 24th Jul 20
The Prospects of S&P 500 Above the Early June Highs - 24th Jul 20
How Silver Could Surpass Its All-Time High - 24th Jul 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Gold Bull Market … Far From Over

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011 Jan 16, 2011 - 12:14 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe bull market in Gold is entering its tenth consecutive year of a long term uptrend. In the entire history of the US stock market, 1885 – 2011, there has only been one long term uptrend that was longer. The thirteen year, 1987 – 2000, long term uptrend that led to the dotcom bubble in the late 1990′s. For many, this type of bull market in Gold will be a once in a lifetime event.


The bull market started during the dotcom bust, and the secular low in commodities, in 2001 when it was only $255/oz. Since this is more of a monetary event, (as are all bull markets in Gold), than a price appreciation event, this bull market has been unfolding in five Primary waves. One must keep in mind that Gold is not becoming more valuable. Its purchasing power remains relatively constant over time. This bull market is unfolding, in price, because the currencies that are required to purchase one ounce of Gold are becoming relatively less valuable. This is exactly what occurred during the 1933-1946 and 1967-1980 Gold bull markets as well.

In 1933 FDR lowered the value of the USD, relative to Gold, by raising its price from $20.67/oz. to $35.00/oz in USD. In 1970 Nixon lowered the value of the USD, relative to Gold, by removing the USD off the Gold standard completely when it was $42.00/oz. For the past several years the FED has been lowering the value of the USD, relative to Gold, with massive liquidity injections under the tranquil term of Quantitative Easing. Basically, the purchasing power of the USD is being devalued again, and, it requires more and more of these devalued USD’s to purchase one ounce of Gold. This is not a local event. Currencies worldwide are also being devalued, and, the cost of one ounce of Gold is rising worldwide no matter the currency.

Since Gold is always aligned with the commodity 13 year secular bull market, we are expecting Gold to top around the year 2014: 2001 – 2014. As noted above the bull market is unfolding in five Primary waves. Primary I took three years, 2001 – 2004, as the price of Gold rose modestly from $255 to $432. Primary wave II bottomed in 2004 at $371. Primary wave III lasted four years, 2004-2008, as Gold rose a much more impressive $371 to $1034. Notice the relationship of the rise in Primary wave III ($663) to the rise in Primary wave I ($167). Then during the economic meltdown of 2008 Gold declined in Primary wave IV to $681. At that low Gold entered its final primary wave of the bull market, the historically parabolic Primary wave V.

As you can observe from the weekly chart this bull market is expanding in complexity. The 1987-2000 13 year bull market in equities was even more complex. Primary wave I is quite simple, with an extended Major wave 3. Primary wave III was a bit more complex, with both Major waves 3 and 5 extending. Primary wave V is already more complex. Not only is Major wave 3 extending, but Intermediate wave five of Major 3 is also extending. This is exactly how markets prepare to go parabolic. The waves continue to subdivide, with minor corrections along the way, forcing buyers in at higher and higher prices. Naturally, there will be a sizeable correction at some point, when buying subsides, during Major wave 4. Then Gold will enter the parabolic Major wave 5. This will likely coincide with a worldwide economic event. The most likely culprit will be the continuously rising inflationary pressures in the fast growing emerging economies.

The 1967-1980 Gold bull market unfolded in time cycles with the following pattern in years: 3-3-3-2-2. This translates into important turning points in the following years: 1970-1973-1976-1978-1980. The current bull market appears to be following a slightly different time cycle pattern: 3-2-2-3-3, or 2004-2006-2008-2011-2014. As a result we expect Major wave 3 to top in 2011, and Major wave 4 to bottom in 2011 as well.

Currently Gold is in a Minor wave 4 downtrend. We’re expecting this downtrend to end in February around the $1315 area or a bit lower. Upon completion Minor wave 5, of Intermediate wave five, of Major wave 3 will be underway. This next uptrend could be quite dynamic. Historically, and even in this bull market, the fifth waves have been the strongest of the five wave sequence of a similar degree.

In review of the entire bull market, thus far, these fifth waves have had a 2.62 to 4.24 multiple fibonacci relationship to their third waves. This suggests two potential upside targets for the end of Major wave 3 in 2011: $1700+ and $2200+. We’ll take the conservative target of $1700+ for now. You can track Gold along with us using page 10 on this link:

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987

http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2011 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules