Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Ray Dalio: This Debt Cycle Will End Soon - John_Mauldin
2.Stock Market Dow Plunge Following Fake US - China Trade War Truce - Nadeem_Walayat
3.UK House Prices 2019 No Deal BrExit 30% Crash Warning! - Nadeem_Walayat
4.What the Oil Short-sellers and OPEC Don’t Know about Peak Shale - Andrew_Butter
5.Stock Market Crashed While the Yield Curve Inverted - Troy_Bombardia
6.More Late-cycle Signs for the Stock Market and What’s Next - Troy_Bombardia
7.US Economy Will Deteriorate Over Next Half Year. What this Means for Stocks - Troy_Bombardia
8.TICK TOCK, Counting Down to the Next Recession - James_Quinn
9.How Theresa May Put Britain on the Path Towards BrExit Civil War - Nadeem_Walayat
10.This Is the End of Trump’s Economic Sugar High - Patrick_Watson
Last 7 days
UK House Prices Momentum Forecast 2019 - 18th Dec 18
Will US Government Shutdown Cause The Stock Market To Crash? - 18th Dec 18
The Coming Financial Storm - 18th Dec 18
Jeff Gundlach thinks that a Stocks Bear Market has started. Is he Right? - 18th Dec 18
Gold’s Not An Investment – You Won’t Get Rich - 17th Dec 18
Stock Market At Medium-Term Lows, Which Direction is Next? - 17th Dec 18
This Stock Will Drive America’s 5G Buildout - 17th Dec 18
Stock Market Turn In The Tide - Have a Happy Bear Market! - 17th Dec 18
How A NASA Scientist Could Trigger The Next Cannabis Boom - 17th Dec 18
iShares Russell 2000 IWM Leading Stock Market Decline - 17th Dec 18
Where is the Dow Stock Market Santa Rally? - 17th Dec 18
With Weaker Climate Consensus, Expect Elevated Climate Change - 16th Dec 18
SMIGGLE Advent Calendar 2018 UK Contents - What You Get Look Inside Review - 16th Dec 18
Is there a Lump of Coal in Santa's Stock Market Bag? - 16th Dec 18
This Market Will Drive Gold in 2019… - 16th Dec 18
Gerald Celente:Central Banks Can’t Stop a 2019 Debt Disaster - 16th Dec 18
Gold Stocks Triple Breakout - 15th Dec 18
The stock market fails to rally each day. What’s next for stocks - 14th Dec 18
How Low Could the S&P 500 Go? - 14th Dec 18
An Industrial to Stock Trade: Is Boeing a BUY Here? - 14th Dec 18
Will the Arrest of Huawei Executive Derail Trade War Truce? - 14th Dec 18
Trump vs the Fed: Who Wins? - 13th Dec 18
Expect Gold & Silver to Pullback Before the Next Move Higher - 13th Dec 18
Dollar Index Trends, USDJPY Setting Up - 13th Dec 18
While The Stocks Bulls Fiddle With The 'Fundamentals,' Rome Burns - 13th Dec 18
The Historic Role of Silver - 13th Dec 18
Natural Gas Price Setup for a Big Move Lower - 13th Dec 18
How to Get 20% Off Morrisons Weekly Supermarket Shopping - 13th Dec 18
Gold Price Analysis: Closer To A Significant Monetary Event - 13th Dec 18
Where is the Stock Market Santa Claus Rally? - 12th Dec 18
Politics and Economics in Times of Crisis - 12th Dec 18
Owning Precious Metals in an IRA - 12th Dec 18
Ways to Improve the Value of Your Home - 12th Dec 18
Theresa May No Confidence Vote, Next Tory Leader Betting Market Analysis and Forecasts - 12th Dec 18
Gold & Global Financial Crisis Redux - 12th Dec 18
Wow Your Neighbours With the Best Christmas Projector Lights for Holidays 2018! - 12th Dec 18
Stock Market Topping Formation as Risks Rise Around the World - 11th Dec 18
The Amazing Story of Gold to Gold Stocks Ratios - 11th Dec 18
Stock Market Medium term Bullish, But Long Term Risk:Reward is Bearish - 11th Dec 18
Is a Deleveraging Event about to Unfold in the Stock Market? - 11th Dec 18
Making Money through Property Investment - 11th Dec 18
Brexit: What Will it Mean for Exchange Rates? - 11th Dec 18
United States Facing Climate Change Severe Water Stress - 10th Dec 18
Waiting for Gold Price to Erupt - 10th Dec 18
Stock Market Key Support Being Re-Tested - 10th Dec 18
May BrExit Deal Tory MP Votes Forecast, Betting Market Analysis - 10th Dec 18
Listen to What Gold is Telling You - 10th Dec 18
The Stock Market’s Long Term Outlook is Changing - 10th Dec 18
Palladium Shortages Expose Broken Futures Markets for Precious Metals - 9th Dec 18
Is an Inverted Yield Curve Bullish for Gold? - 9th Dec 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How You Could Make £2,850 Per Month

Stock Market Yearly Cycle Low Approaching

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011 Jan 11, 2011 - 07:29 AM GMT

By: Toby_Connor

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSometime between early February and early April the market should drop down into a major yearly cycle low. Last year that cycle low came during the first week of February. 

Since the current daily cycle is now in the timing band for a bottom we should see an intermediate top fairly soon.



Yearly cycle corrections are major corrections, only exceeded by the four year cycle low in severity. So once the correction begins it should be a dozy. The severity of the impending correction will tell us whether the cyclical bull is on its last legs or not.

If the correction retraces back to or maybe a little below the 200 DMA then it will be a normal intermediate correction within a cyclical bull market. 

If, however, the market were to retrace the entire autumn rally and test the summer lows that will be a very strong sign that all the stimulus and money printing was for naught. 

Keep in mind the next four year cycle low is due sometime in 2012. And since bear markets tend to last about a year and a half I strongly suspect this cyclical bull will top sometime this year. 

As a matter of fact the market is already potentially forming a megaphone topping pattern. This pattern of wildly expanding volatility is caused by the underlying debt cancer and inflation trying to pull the market down while at the same time the Fed tries to counter the bear market forces with ever larger monetary stimulus. 

The result is a market being whipped back and forth in larger and larger swings. 



In the end the Fed will fail and the next leg down in the secular bear will begin; only this time will be much worse than the last one. All the Fed will have succeeded in doing is making the problem bigger.

I would suggest if one has retirement funds still invested in the stock market they get them out and back into a money market at this time until we see just how far down the market drops as it moves into the yearly cycle trough.

I will reopen the 15 month subscription briefly for those that want to ride the bull and need a coach to keep them focused. And for those who want a voice of reason to get you out at the top when your emotions will urge you to stay at the party too long.

    Toby Connor
    Gold Scents  

    GoldScents is a financial blog focused on the analysis of the stock market and the secular gold bull market.   Subscriptions to the premium service includes a daily and weekend market update emailed to subscribers.  If you would like to be added to the email list that receives notice of new posts to GoldScents, or have questions,email Toby.

    © 2010 Copyright Toby Connor - All Rights Reserved
    Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules