Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

The Stocks Bear Market Will Return In 2011

Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market Dec 26, 2010 - 11:16 AM GMT

By: Toby_Connor

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt's almost impossible to find anyone who is long term bearish on the stock market or economy at this time. In the recent Barron’s poll every single analyst expected a rise in stock prices next year and continued economic expansion.

I think they are all going to be wrong, horribly wrong. I believe next year the stock market will begin the third leg down in the secular bear market. And the global economy will tip over into the next recession that will be much worse than the last one.


I've gone over the 3 year cycle in the dollar index many times. The dip down into the next 3 year cycle low this spring should drive the final leg up in gold’s massive C-wave. What I haven't talked much about is what happens after the dollar bottoms.

I actually expect this three year cycle in the dollar to play out almost exactly like it did during the last three year cycle. When the dollar collapses this spring it will not only drive the price of gold to a final C-wave top, it will drive virtually all commodity prices through the roof, the most important being energy and to some extent food.

It was the sudden massive spike in energy that drove the global economy over the edge into recession in late `07 and early `08. The implosion of the credit markets just exacerbated the problem. You can see on the following chart just as soon as Bernanke drove the dollar below long term historical support (80) oil took off on its parabolic move to $147.

What followed was a collapse in economic activity and the beginning of the second leg down in the long term secular bear market for stocks.

This was mirrored by the dollar rallying out of the 3 year cycle low. That rally was driven by the severe, but brief, deflationary pressures released as the global economy and then credit markets collapsed.

We will see the same thing happen again. In his attempt to print prosperity and reflate asset prices Ben is going to spike inflation horribly as the dollar collapses down into the three year cycle low next spring. Just like in `08 that will tip the global economy back into recession and another deflationary period as the dollar rallies out of the three year cycle low.

The stock market will begin the trip down into the next leg of the secular bear market that it's been in since 2000. The global economy will roll over into the next recession which I expect to be much worse than the one we just suffered, though mainly because it will begin with unemployment already at very high levels.

Contrary to what economists and analyst are telling you, at the dollars three year cycle low next year it will be time to put our bear hats back on, prepare for hard times, and the next leg down in the stock market bear.

I will leave the special Christmas subscription offer, (15 months for the price of 12), up for a few more days. If you want to take advantage of the discounted price, click here.

Toby Connor
Gold Scents  

GoldScents is a financial blog focused on the analysis of the stock market and the secular gold bull market.   Subscriptions to the premium service includes a daily and weekend market update emailed to subscribers.  If you would like to be added to the email list that receives notice of new posts to GoldScents, or have questions,email Toby.

© 2010 Copyright Toby Connor - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in